Financial journalists rarely get this right. Most of the time, official deal values are enterprise values on a cash-free, debt-free basis, rather than equity values of specif stakes acquired. For startups, that usually ends up being pretty close to the overall equity value, since they typically don’t have much, if any, debt.
I’m having a hard time buying the idea that LAB can scale to 390,000 units per year. Reports indicate they produced around 130,000 units last year, and projecting a 3x increase for 2025 seems pretty ambitious given the underlying requirement to scale production (putters aren’t software...). For an equipment manufacturer, I’d typically expect normalized EBITDA margins in the 10–20% range. LAB may be on the lower end, given its earlier stage, but for valuation purposes, let’s assume a normalized margin.
If we take the unit volume and average selling price at face value and use an average case, we land somewhere between $4 million and $23 million in stabilized EBITDA—the former being the low end (lower margin x 2024E sales), and latter the high end (higher margin x 2025E sales). Let’s split the difference and use $14 million as a base case. Assuming the reported $200m enterprise value is accurate, that implies an EBITDA multiple north of 14x. Is that high or low compared to comps? It depends—but that’s definitely rich, especially for a niche player.
To be clear, I fully recognize this is a growth PE transaction. However, the TAM (total addressable market) is inherently limited, and the business doesn’t offer the kind of scaling potential you’d see e.g. in a typical tech investment.
Yes, the growth story helps justify a premium, but having spent the past decade in private equity, I can say institutional investors are typically wary of "one-trick ponies." Revenue concentration, trend/fad risk, and lack of product diversification are real concerns.
LAB is heavily reliant on one innovation—zero torque putters. Larger competitors offer a broader lineup and are better insulated from shifts in consumer trends. If the novelty fades or zero torque falls out of fashion, sales could drop off sharply. Competitors moving into the ZT space could put pressure on prices.
So, even if we accept the current estimates and assumptions, this valuation doesn’t look cheap—especially given the execution risk and uncertainty.