Cage Match to the DEATH: LPGA Tour vs. Middle-aged Scratch and Below

[Mr.Cleeks]

A scratch golfer would get their butts kicked even if they played from the same tees. /thread

[Johnny Biarritz]

5 hours ago, cardoustie said:

Would a +4 elite Am competing at state and national Am levels get smoked ?   I think not

 

Jim 0.0 El Hoselero from a 6200, 70/125 track is getting crushed 99/100 rounds

Elite mid-am players like Christian Brand or Nathan Smith are not relevant to the conversation. I think that's where this conversation has derailed. The question is whether the 40 year old jobroni "scratch" player at the club up the street can beat a LPGA player. As you say, that guy is getting beaten very badly every time. That 1 time out of 100 possibility comes is his absolute best round comes on the same day as her worst round of the year.

[JungleJimbo]

25 minutes ago, Johnny Biarritz said:

Elite mid-am players like Christian Brand or Nathan Smith are not relevant to the conversation. I think that's where this conversation has derailed. The question is whether the 40 year old jobroni "scratch" player at the club up the street can beat a LPGA player. As you say, that guy is getting beaten very badly every time. That 1 time out of 100 possibility comes is his absolute best round comes on the same day as her worst round of the year.

 

Interestingly ... "Jabroni" is often using as a wrestling term w.r.t. a "fodder" used to build up the opponent's win record

... if so, then it's well-used by @Johnny Biarritz w.r.t. potential matchup vs an LPGA Pro (as was your earlier vivid imagery, of said hypothetical LPGA pro inserting foot up colon, of that mouthy scratch amateur).

 

 

  

On 7/1/2025 at 11:15 AM, Johnny Biarritz said:

There's a huge difference in a scratch player who just plays at the club and one who consistently plays in tournaments. A friend of mine plays off a +2ish, has made top-16 at the US Mid Am, won state mid ams, and competes almost every weekend during the summer. I'd say he hangs with LPGA players but over 4 rounds I'd say he loses by 5 or 6 strokes. If not more. A 0 handicap club player...any LPGA player will break her entire foot off deep inside his colon 10 times out of 10, dude doesn't have a chance and he's ripping some hard psychedelics if he things that he does.

 

[mosesgolf]

I’m a former + index player who has played in 3 LPGA Pro Ams.   The gals are way better than they’re given credit for.  There was this one gal I played with in a scramble (former major winner).  I’ve played with some really good players and her wedge was the best I’ve ever seen and she never missed a fairway. She wasn’t long but the ball went where she wanted it to.   Her wedge game was near PGA Tour level.  

[iBanesto]

Min Woo Lee vs Min Jee Lee.

 

🇦🇺

 

 

https://www.golfaustralia.com.au/news/hot-min-woo-lee-still-not-the-best-golfer-in-the-family-616145

 

"If we play from the same tees, I'll smoke her because I hit it very far," he said.

 

"But if she played from her tees and I played from mine, it would be pretty close.

 

"She's got the long putter in now so she can putt and she's doing really good over the last couple months putting.

 

"Over the long run I think she might beat me. She's a robot. She probably would have hit 19 fairways out of 18 fairways today because she's a robot.

 

"She's very straightforward and she controls the ball so well. Over time she'll probably win, but if there was a little short sprint I might win."

[JungleJimbo]

46 minutes ago, iBanesto said:

Min Woo Lee vs Min Jee Lee.

 

🇦🇺

 

 

https://www.golfaustralia.com.au/news/hot-min-woo-lee-still-not-the-best-golfer-in-the-family-616145

 

"If we play from the same tees, I'll smoke her because I hit it very far," he said.

 

"But if she played from her tees and I played from mine, it would be pretty close.

 

"She's got the long putter in now so she can putt and she's doing really good over the last couple months putting.

 

"Over the long run I think she might beat me. She's a robot. She probably would have hit 19 fairways out of 18 fairways today because she's a robot.

 

"She's very straightforward and she controls the ball so well. Over time she'll probably win, but if there was a little short sprint I might win."

 

Nah... the LPGA pro should ideally be a trash-talker

... Charley Hull or Jenny Shin pls.

 

 

Edited July 2 by JungleJimbo

[cardoustie]

I think defining scratch is the best part of this thread, because certain levels of low +’s would / could win. … that’s the real debate.  Scratch is a big category

 

A jabroni golfer at 0 doesn’t really know golf if he thinks he can compete with the top 100 ladies in the world

 

the best ladies like Charlie, Nelly and Lexi are long enough for any tees really

 

Lou Stagner has a similar debate running on twitter 

[iBanesto]

17 minutes ago, cardoustie said:

I think defining scratch is the best part of this thread, because certain levels of low +’s would / could win. … that’s the real debate.  Scratch is a big category

 

A jabroni golfer at 0 doesn’t really know golf if he thinks he can compete with the top 100 ladies in the world

 

the best ladies like Charlie, Nelly and Lexi are long enough for any tees really

 

Lou Stagner has a similar debate running on twitter 

 

Agreed. A scratch golfer could be someone who:

• a club champion at their local club and plays well there every week but doesn't compete elsewhere
• a talented young player who is competing in top level junior golf tournaments
• a competitive amateur player who competes regularly in state amateur events or higher
• a person from Barstool Sports who claims to be a scratch golfer

Interestingly Ian Poutler turned pro with a 4 handicap (not +4) and Nick O'Hern with a 2 handicap.

 

[Dave230]

18 hours ago, AZBRONCFAN said:

Yup, breakfast balls, wrong drops, put me down for double when it was going to be a snowman, etc. I think the biggest vanity caps are 0-4 handicaps IMO

Is it common for people to do those things in competitive rounds counting for handicap in the US? In Ireland, that would be considered cheating and get you kicked out of a club if people found out about it. You can do all those things in a casual round but if you have an official card in your hand, there are definitely no mulligans or gimmes whatsoever.

[Jc0]

35 minutes ago, cardoustie said:

I think defining scratch is the best part of this thread, because certain levels of low +’s would / could win. … that’s the real debate.  Scratch is a big category

 

A jabroni golfer at 0 doesn’t really know golf if he thinks he can compete with the top 100 ladies in the world

 

the best ladies like Charlie, Nelly and Lexi are long enough for any tees really

 

Lou Stagner has a similar debate running on twitter 

 

I think once you get below a +1 your venturing into a different type of golfer. Also a travel scratch and a home course scratch are two very different things. 

 

In my head I see LPGA players in the +3 to +6 range. The courses they play are usually rated around par but tricked up a little so probably rating closer to +1 to +2 over par. A true scratch golfer is going to have a tough time shooting even in those conditions. 

[bcflyguy1]

15 hours ago, isaacbm said:

I can’t help myself. I have to post in these threads. It always comes down to a math problem for me. The best women in the world (if they were using the men’s course rating/slope rating system) would be the equivalent of around +5 to +6 handicaps.  And remember that’s using only tournament rounds.  The women around 200th in the world would be closer to +2 handicaps.
 

If you are a club scratch that is literally a 0.0 index, (and most of your rounds come from men’s night with your buddies, drinking beers, raking three footers ) what do you think the chances are of you beating a +5.5 tournament player? 

 

Basically, the woman would have to have close to her worst round of the season and the scratch would have to have close to his best round. Definitely a possibility, but likely not better than one in 20.  

Lexi Thompson shot 73,69 at TPC Sumerlin (rated 74.7/143) basically 7under the rating playing in a men’s PGA Tour tournament. She missed the cut by 3 and beat 45 male PGa Tour players but still shot 7 under the rating for two days. Do you think scratch-guy-Earl from locker 222 is going to shoot 7 under the rating in a PGA tour event?

 

math

[Forged4ever]

Oh Dear Lord, I'm pretty sure that WRX's Big Beautiful Rule Book bans threads like this....

 

That said, my question is not, can an average club scratch hang with an average LPGA Player in a Tourney event format(they cannot😂😂🤙), as they cannot even hang with em in a 💩💩's 'n giggles Pro-Am format event, at least the ones that I Played in, though the better question is why do threads like this consistently persistently & unapologetically bring out the truly moronic amongst us🤪?!?!?

 

Now before ya jump me, brow beat me down and serenade me with all of your experience with scratch, beatin on the lil Ladies from the LPGA yada yada yada, take a deep breath, slowly exhale, then jump down to the Instruction Section, cuz guaranteed that there's a 16-18yo kid who's lookin for someone just like YOU teach em how to swing!!!

 

Go get em Tiger🐯!!!

 

One of the single greatest gifts that we can bestow upon others is to teach them, so please go show him that LPGA stompin swing of yours, and more importantly, that LPGA beatin mental game that you possess🤣🤣

 

You guys are the friggin best🥰😍!!!

 

Fairways & Greens 4ever My Friends⛳️

RP

Edited July 3 by Forged4ever

[Forged4ever]

57 minutes ago, Jc0 said:

 

I think once you get below a +1 your venturing into a different type of golfer. Also A TRAVEL SCRATCH AND A HOME COURSE SCRATCH ARE TWO VERY DIFFERENT THINGS

Superb post and the best that I've read over the last 2-3 pages(that's all that I've read🤪)

 

@Jc0's second paragraph was just as poignant and accurate, though I don't want to overload the idiots amongst us so just concentrate on his first paragraph😉

 

Superbly Played Brotha👊

Cheers🍻

RP 

[Forged4ever]

@isaacbm, please tell these Gals/Gents about your lil 16-17yo female pseudo-protege, and what she'd do to the vast vast vast majority of LEGIT scratch golfers, not the wannabes and poseurs!!

 

To the idiots amongst you, please bear in mind a few things about Isaac....

 

First, with him bein a former Tour Boy, if you are not used to Playin with and competing against guys/gals like Isaac, watching him/her drill a ball 280-300yds+ down the pipe then you stepping up to take your scratch swing can be a very harrowing intimidating experience. Second, this lil gal not only followed Isaac, she followed him with birdies and pars!! Third, this Gal is not even an LPGA Player, though I'll let Isaac describe her and her game.

 

Third and finally.....

 

I changed my mind, I friggin lovvvvvve these kinda threads😂🤣😂!!!

 

Thanks for indulging my idiocy🤪👊

RP

[farmer]

At least this thread is better than the "can a 4 hdcp beat an LPGA player".  That was a "4", not "+4".

[PedronNiall]

To throw it out there, there's enough strokes gained data to do a good job of approximating how much distance off the tee and on full shots it takes to equal or surpass the advantage of an overall more consistent player, especially one used to posting a large number of their rounds under tournament conditions. The stats already tell us that the biggest difference between pros and all levels of ams is in strokes gained off the tee and approach, and give us an idea of how much difference those two areas present between various pro men; the women's strokes gained data has only recently started to be compiled and it's not as easy to make comparisons on because of how it's staged.

 

Datagolf also has an analysis from a few years back that still holds with what we see today: in most cases, longer hitters see their biggest advantage on longer courses, especially on those with penal rough, with advantage diminishing as length decreases or on courses where short game more often comes into play. There were no absolutes in the analysis, and the recent Men's U.S. Open shows us that decently long and straight beats out exceptionally long and a bit wilder on the most exacting courses even when they are well over 7k yards. On the lower end of course length we would probably expect the women to actually be at an advantage over longer men; on the high end of course distance we'd expect the men to have the advantage, though there would be exceptions in both cases.

 

The Rocket Classic just showed us that someone ~25 yards shorter than the others he faced in the playoffs was able to shoot the same score over 4 days, but we've also seen tournaments where massive distance advantage from the tee and fairway became a separator for the eventual winner.

 

To the topic: how this goes on average will vary wildly based on a lot of factors. One, whether the "worst" of the men are legit scratch or better, versus vanity caps. Two, the amount of experience the ams have in tournament conditions. Three, whether the course setups give advantage or penalty to the on average longer drives one would expect from the men. Four, how much pressure the course puts on the short game and putting.

 

This isn't as cut and dry as professional women vs amateur males on uniform soccer pitches or tennis or basketball courts; there junior boys consistently beat professional/national women's teams because the speed and power advantage is so outsized even in teenage males vs adult females. If the touted new challenge Barstool is pushing is setup to be a real test it may be fun; if it's done to further an agenda it will be hot garbage.

 

Edit: Remember we've seen what happens when some of the very best women attempted to simply make the cut at Men's professional events. Let's also not forget there's a reason there's been continued push back over a few failed Men's professionals, who never did anything of note even on mini tours, who had various... procedures done and began playing professional Women's golf, up to the point of winning in some cases. There's a reason male players at any level aren't simply allowed to compete in Women's sports during real events. On average, the men are going to be at an advantage, but it could still present some challenge both ways depending on the courses so long as the men are legit scratch or better.

Edited July 2 by PedronNiall

[widow-maker]

Get Grant Horvat on the line and have him set up several matches with some of the top LPGA players from the same tees.  I know he did a 9 hole match with Nelly Korda and she beat him by a couple of strokes but it would make for an interesting series if he took on some of the top players.  He'd have a distance advantage but I think most of the time the women would overcome that with approach and putting.  

[aenemated]

17 minutes ago, widow-maker said:

she beat him by a couple of strokes

 

She won by 2 ... over 3 holes. 

 

 

[Shilgy]

On 7/1/2025 at 11:02 AM, Argonne69 said:

 

A scratch player would have been eaten alive at the KPMG at Fields Ranch East. Only three LPGA pros finished under par. The cut was at 7 over. You think a scratch player would have shot par or better? Lol. 

 

 

By his logic that scratch could have beat Spaun at Oakmont….just look at the scores for crying out loud….don’t ya guys know the scratch can shoot under par!🤣

Edited July 3 by Shilgy

[Shilgy]

On 7/1/2025 at 10:29 AM, fowlerscousin said:

Scratch players will post scores under par. I dont think u understand how few women have a stroke average sub 73

133 so far this year.  What do you think your scratch buddies average is?

[aabcuue]

On 4/20/2018 at 11:20 PM, straightshot7 said:

Please...LPGA Tour players on average are not playing for basic needs. 100th on the money list made $98k last year not including endorsements and anything their spouse brings in.

Thats *BEFORE* factoring in 100k+ of expenses for lodging, airfare (no long 2wk+ planning here), car rental (most lpga tournament dont have courtesy vehicles), food, caddy, coach, psychologist/mental advisor, etc.

 

Check the player blogs and posts. Unless yr top player, most are sharing/splitting rooms/house w several players AND caddy, team members.

[Shilgy]

20 hours ago, PedronNiall said:

To throw it out there, there's enough strokes gained data to do a good job of approximating how much distance off the tee and on full shots it takes to equal or surpass the advantage of an overall more consistent player, especially one used to posting a large number of their rounds under tournament conditions. The stats already tell us that the biggest difference between pros and all levels of ams is in strokes gained off the tee and approach, and give us an idea of how much difference those two areas present between various pro men; the women's strokes gained data has only recently started to be compiled and it's not as easy to make comparisons on because of how it's staged.

 

Datagolf also has an analysis from a few years back that still holds with what we see today: in most cases, longer hitters see their biggest advantage on longer courses, especially on those with penal rough, with advantage diminishing as length decreases or on courses where short game more often comes into play. There were no absolutes in the analysis, and the recent Men's U.S. Open shows us that decently long and straight beats out exceptionally long and a bit wilder on the most exacting courses even when they are well over 7k yards. On the lower end of course length we would probably expect the women to actually be at an advantage over longer men; on the high end of course distance we'd expect the men to have the advantage, though there would be exceptions in both cases.

 

The Rocket Classic just showed us that someone ~25 yards shorter than the others he faced in the playoffs was able to shoot the same score over 4 days, but we've also seen tournaments where massive distance advantage from the tee and fairway became a separator for the eventual winner.

 

To the topic: how this goes on average will vary wildly based on a lot of factors. One, whether the "worst" of the men are legit scratch or better, versus vanity caps. Two, the amount of experience the ams have in tournament conditions. Three, whether the course setups give advantage or penalty to the on average longer drives one would expect from the men. Four, how much pressure the course puts on the short game and putting.

 

This isn't as cut and dry as professional women vs amateur males on uniform soccer pitches or tennis or basketball courts; there junior boys consistently beat professional/national women's teams because the speed and power advantage is so outsized even in teenage males vs adult females. If the touted new challenge Barstool is pushing is setup to be a real test it may be fun; if it's done to further an agenda it will be hot garbage.

 

Edit: Remember we've seen what happens when some of the very best women attempted to simply make the cut at Men's professional events. Let's also not forget there's a reason there's been continued push back over a few failed Men's professionals, who never did anything of note even on mini tours, who had various... procedures done and began playing professional Women's golf, up to the point of winning in some cases. There's a reason male players at any level aren't simply allowed to compete in Women's sports during real events. On average, the men are going to be at an advantage, but it could still present some challenge both ways depending on the courses so long as the men are legit scratch or better.

Ok…but we’re not discussing how the ladies would fare against D1 ams or male pros are we?  The discussion essentially centers around “what do you think the ladies handicap would be.  So we’d need to look at scores shot to have an estimate since the male scratch counts just 8 of the last 20.

 

Alexa Pano has not had a great year and is #125 on the tours scoring average list at 72.79.

Her best 8 of last 20 are 69-68-66-69-69-66-67-64

Edited July 3 by Shilgy

[aenemated]

The lengths of "well, but what if ... ?" dudes will go to trying to just deny they'll be beaten by a girl is extraordinary. 

 

[isaacbm]

11 hours ago, Forged4ever said:

@isaacbm, please tell these Gals/Gents about your lil 16-17yo female pseudo-protege, and what she'd do to the vast vast vast majority of LEGIT scratch golfers, not the wannabes and poseurs!!

 

To the idiots amongst you, please bear in mind a few things about Isaac....

 

First, with him bein a former Tour Boy, if you are not used to Playin with and competing against guys/gals like Isaac, watching him/her drill a ball 280-300yds+ down the pipe then you stepping up to take your scratch swing can be a very harrowing intimidating experience. Second, this lil gal not only followed Isaac, she followed him with birdies and pars!! Third, this Gal is not even an LPGA Player, though I'll let Isaac describe her and her game.

 

Third and finally.....

 

I changed my mind, I friggin lovvvvvve these kinda threads😂🤣😂!!!

 

Thanks for indulging my idiocy🤪👊

RP

Well, she’s not my protégé. Apparently I don’t have much to offer her! Lol!

But there is a junior at our club who is turning 18 this year who refuses to play from the ladies tee.  She only plays from 6900 and 7200. Course is rated 74.5/142.  Her scoring average is 71. I played with her three times last fall and three times this spring and she’s beat me four of the six.  She’s shot 68 once from the 7200 box, 68 once  from the 6900 yard box, 69 twice from the 6900 yard box 71 once, and 73 once.

I beat her one time by 1 when I shot 68 she was 69 and one time when I shot 71 and she shot 73. 
    Over the six rounds, she is beating me by 11. 

I’m a plus 1  (I’d say you could

define me as a traveling scratch…😉) right now and I promise you she is not an LPGA tour player. 
 

Cheers Richard! 

[Forged4ever]

8 hours ago, aenemated said:

 

She won by 2 ... over 3 holes. 

 

 

This is the first time that I've seen someone on the board enter the "Popular Post" domain with five consecutive "😂" emojis

 

I take back everything negative that I've said regarding this thread and those like it, even that asinine "can a 4~ beat.....," lolol

 

I used to be a closed minded dick, though due to @isaacbm, @Shilgy(especially regarding Bob Jones🤪) and all of you, I've become much more open minded and if I may say so myself, a great guy that you'd like to have a pop with🍻

 

My Love to All🥰

RP

[Forged4ever]

FWIW, the only scratch golfers that I have EVER Played with in either a Tourney or money game who shot under par were former Elite Ams or former Tour Boys(Frank Fuhrer III, a former Tour Boy who was actually a 1~ when, in his 5th round of the year, threw a 67 down from the Greens/7280yds at Oakmont), who due to work, family and/or just life in general had climbed south to north with their cap, though they still had a mind full of incredible shots under the gun, that if the putts fell, they could easily turn back the clock to their +4, +5 and +6 days, if only for a nine or round.

 

I'm not sayin that there are no north to south scratches out there that can take it red under the gun, I'm just sayin that they didn't Play out of the Pittsburgh Field Club, Oakmont, Fox Chapel Golf Club🦊 or Sewickley Heights GC, the Top-4 Players' Clubs in town🤷🏻‍♂️

 

Fairways & Greens 4ever My Friends⛳️

RP

Edited July 3 by Forged4ever

[aenemated]

21 minutes ago, Forged4ever said:

This is the first time that I've seen someone on the board enter the "Popular Post" domain with five consecutive "😂" emojis

 

See, I'm a pretty big deal! 😂

[Mr.Cleeks]

The people in this thread are absolutely delusional. I know this was already mentioned but Nelly Korda beat Grant Horvat (who is a +3 handicap) by 2 shots in a 3 hole match played a golfer around Grant Horvat's level who averages 300 off the tee at any course on the PGAT schedule from the tips, the scratch golfer would lose by a fairly large margin. The length advantage would be negated pretty fast. The average LPGA pro gets up and down 55% of the time whenever they miss a green. A scratch golfer only gets up and down 50% of the time when they miss a green. The average LPGA pro takes 29.5 putts a round while the avg scratch golfer is between 30-31. If you take into account accuracy I don't think the scratch golfer will gain much off the tee and will lose shots everywhere else. In short it won't even be a close match

[Shilgy]

2 hours ago, isaacbm said:

Well, she’s not my protégé. Apparently I don’t have much to offer her! Lol!

But there is a junior at our club who is turning 18 this year who refuses to play from the ladies tee.  She only plays from 6900 and 7200. Course is rated 74.5/142.  Her scoring average is 71. I played with her three times last fall and three times this spring and she’s beat me four of the six.  She’s shot 68 once from the 7200 box, 68 once  from the 6900 yard box, 69 twice from the 6900 yard box 71 once, and 73 once.

I beat her one time by 1 when I shot 68 she was 69 and one time when I shot 71 and she shot 73. 
    Over the six rounds, she is beating me by 11. 

I’m a plus 1  (I’d say you could

define me as a traveling scratch…😉) right now and I promise you she is not an LPGA tour player. 
 

Cheers Richard! 

Well sure…an 18 year old girl can beat them but most certainly not a scratch guy!  Did ya read the posts about how much better guys are at everything? 😉

 

It’s really simple math when it comes to the scratch.  We can either use actual scores to guesstimate the lady pros handicap like I did with Alexa Pano… or just crunch the numbers a bit and realize a scratch(0.0 index variety) is not really that good in the overall scheme of things. If the course rating the scratch plays are 72.0 his average score will be about 75. And yet we have some scoffing at a woman that averages 73 in tourney conditions under the gun and playing for their livelihood. 🤯

2 hours ago, Forged4ever said:

This is the first time that I've seen someone on the board enter the "Popular Post" domain with five consecutive "😂" emojis

 

I take back everything negative that I've said regarding this thread and those like it, even that asinine "can a 4~ beat.....," lolol

 

I used to be a closed minded dick, though due to @isaacbm, @Shilgy(especially regarding Bob Jones🤪) and all of you, I've become much more open minded and if I may say so myself, a great guy that you'd like to have a pop with🍻

 

My Love to All🥰

RP

And if y’all ever find yourselves in the Pittsburgh area I will vouch for you as being a great guy to sit down and have a bite o eat and a pop on the side.😎

 

 

 

[Red4282]

I hate topics like this because I always get into arguments… not going to do it! But I do find it interesting, that I asked AI a series of questions on this topic and this was what it spit out, which by the way I think is pretty accurate:

 

The average LPGA score is 71.82. They typically play courses around 6400. Most courses in that range tend to be rated right around par. AI says they play the course harder than usually, tucked pins, perhaps taller rough, etc. However there can be some advantages too, assistants to help find balls, pure conditions, and caddies.

 

All in all i think its fair to say the average course is playing at a rating 1-2 over par.
 

A scratch would shoot at or near this rating statistically 40 % of the time (8 out 20 rounds). Bottom line, is AI determined in a single 18 hole match the LPGA pro would probably win 80+% of the time. The odds get worse if you are talking top 10-20 LPGA range, probably high 90’s in favor of the pro. Drop near the bottom of the LPGA and maybe you are looking at roughly a 30% chance for the scratch. 
 

Now, if we moved the tees back to 7000 yards and the scratch is a longer hitter, that changes things quite a bit. AI gives the scratch  40-50% chance in a single 18 hole match, with the caveat of its very fluid, top lpga have better odds, bottom worse, etc. 

 

Its been eluded to several times above but no two scratches are alike. Some long hitters, some short, some have pressured experience. Some are vanity caps created with buddies. Some are traveling caps, some are made playing one course. Same can be said about an LPGA pro to a much smaller degree in that some are longer than others etc. The point in all that is “pro vs scratch” is a VERY broad brush stroke and it really could go many different ways depending on alot of other factors.

 

Overall odds favor the ladies quite a bit, as if I was to lay money, it would be on the pro. Is it unreasonable to think a scratch has a chance? No, its certainly possible given the right variables and circumstances.

Edited July 3 by Red4282