Will Finau break thru and soar?

[Dr. Block]

Do you all not remember the Big Break Disney he was on with his brother Gipper many years ago!? To go from the fringes of semi elite ability like a big breaker to a winner on the PGA tour is a bonkers Cinderella story. I would say he has most certainly already soared! the rest is gravy.

[smashdn]

No, I get it. Compared to the guys that played he sucked it up big time. I want to see the raw numbers though if possible. You can make generalities (like the chart) from the numbers but seeing the numbers is important to me too. I am not disregarding or saying it is incorrect, just that there may be other variables at play. Those numbers only take into account the tournaments he has played and the rankings rank him against players who played in tournaments where he may not have, the sample sizes are not the same and if it is only 2020 might be quite small. That was all I was saying. Average in the fourth round at The Memorial against a guy who did not play that but instead the fourth round at The Travelers or something like that. Could be a difference, could not be. Without the raw numbers I can't tell.

 

I try my best to be very careful with the ranking stats for those reasons.

[Lobby]

I hope Tony's recent 4th round performances don't go messing with his head. Golf is such a mental game and it's easy going to some dark places after bad results.

I'm a huge fan of his and I hope he accomplishes whatever goals he's set for himself

[Valtiel]

Yeesh, yeah that pretty much says it all. Are there more in depth stats that show where the strokes are leaking? I really like the guy, hope he can figure it out.

[Philomathesq]

I get what you are saying now, and to your point, all rankings will have their limitations. However, if you look at the final round scoring average of golfers who have played at least 10 final rounds, there are some big names on the list that are not likely playing in the easier events: Bryson DeChambeau, Justin Thomas, Patrick Reed, and Hideki Matsuyama are all in the Top 20.
Moreover, all but one of the 24 golfers ranked ahead of Finau in the FedEx Cup rankings is way ahead of Finau in final round scoring (Morikawa is tied with Finau for final round scoring), and of the 15 golfers ahead of Finau on OWGR, only Brooks Koepka (#180) has a worse final round scoring ranking.
So, to the extent there is any bias toward easy final rounds v. hard final rounds, I don't think it manifests itself in any real way through the rankings. @Valtiel I didn't spend much time on the PGA Tour's website, but the only stat I could find (other round-by-round scoring) that is broken down by round is putting. Finau is ranked 60th in 4th round putts per round, which isn't as bad as his 165th ranking for overall 4th round scoring, but it isn't great, either.

[Krt22]

SG tee to green Thursday/Friday- +10.45

SG tee to green Sat/Sun- -0.96

 

He actually putted the best on Sunday, but his ball striking and short game let him down

[Pepperturbo]

Finau is a good man. Watched him on BB and rooting for him ever since, including yesterday. He needs to get comfortable with the attention that comes with being in the lead and feel he belongs in the winners circle.

[miamistomp]

He is making a ton of money and he is a family guy away from home

He does not seem to be as super interested in golf for golf's sake as many other guys on the tour

In interviews he seems more interested in basketball than talking golf

He has talent and it is a way to make a great living but I don't see him having the focus to be a consistent winner

[QuigleyDU]

He just needs a win, Anywhere really. Then the monkey will be off his back and he will be able to win again.

[Philomathesq]

The 2016 Puerto Rico Open says hi.

[aenemated]

Precisely this. I love his game, his story, his talent - he's just a great dude. I just don't think he has the instinct to dominate the way he probably ought to with the immense talent he's got.

If he had Tiger's mindset coupled with his game, he'd be unbeatable. But he just doesn't. And I don't think that's a thing that can be learned as an adult.

Always gonna pull for him, though.

[chigolfer1]

Agreed, and I don't think it has anything to do with desire, dedication or any of those buzzwords. He just doesn't seem to have that closer gene. Those most top 10 stats without a win were crazy.

[3whacker]

I see him as a consistent check cashing guy but I dont think he will break the double digit mark in wins, he just isn't a closer when the heat is on. The tournament he wins will be won by a wide margin where he goes real low and runs away with it, but in a match play scenario I see him coming up a bit short. Personally I think he is a great guy and should make many President Cup or Ryder Cup teams

[Sean2]

What seems to separate the great golfers from the journeymen is what goes on between the ears. Tony's problem may be more about what is going on between the ears than a putting stroke or whatever.

[chigolfer1]

The double digit mark? Ha, let's get him to four before we even start thinking about double digit. He has one win and it wasn't exactly a major.

[OrangeGravy]

I'm sure it would. Doesn't necessarily defuse the message of not doing things on Sunday you hear your whole life growing up though. I don't think there's an open caveat to allow activities that will lead to lots of $$.

[OrangeGravy]

Not all religions have a "do nothing, but go to church and stay home on Sunday" policy. Had lots of friends growing up that dealt with similar issues when it came to sports. Some played on Sunday, some didn't, and some only played on Sunday if it was an important game situation. It's a real thing.

[fowlerscousin]

i think finau could win a british open

[miamistomp]

Might try a witch doctor too in order to break Puerto Rico winner curse

The event has been considered to have an unofficial "curse" on the PGA Tour, as no winner of the event has ever gone on to win another tournament. The only exception to this is Michael Bradley who won the Puerto Rico Open for a second time in 2011, after winning his first in 2009, but has not won any other event since.

[HawksBackInBlack]

Agree that he has already soared to some extent. Top 99.9999% of all professionals. Do I think he is a HOF player or 10-15 wins. No. He is below average putter and looks pretty tentative and awkward on a few putts that really matter so far. Hope I’m wrong as I really like watching him and seems like great guy. Maybe he will break they and approach 10 wins + major, but needs to drain more putts

[tiderider]

maybe he doesn't have a lot of talent ...

[Showtime9]

I think it is already a cinderella story...He already made a Ryder Cup team. Has a ton of talent and can bomb it with the best of them. If he gets over the mental block of the final round he can surely win like 2 or 3 tourneys a year.

[Cincy_Ken]

I think you're dead right about the instinct to win. There are some guys who are born winners and close more events than their talent level says they should. Jordan Spieth is a winner, if he ever gets his ball striking fixed again he'll win golf tournaments. Finau is in the category of guys who don't win the amount of tournaments their talent level indicates they should. I think of guys like Oosthuizen, Fowler, Fleetwood. Louis is the captain of this crew; pretty amazing that a guy can finish in the top 2 of every major championship and never won in the US.

[chigolfer1]

ha, that's pretty wild! Of course, it's partly because it's not exactly the strongest field and you usually don't have top 40 type guys winning it so it somewhat makes sense but still pretty funny. You'd think there'd be at least one win.

[chigolfer1]

He's 16th in the world. He finished last year 16th and the year before 9th. He's had like 29 top 10s in the last three years or whatever the exact stat they gave Sunday. He's currently 12th in SG total, 35th the year before and 7th in 2018. If that isn't a lot of talent, then he must be luckiest man alive.

His main weakness is putting, and it's not disastrous. Otherwise, he's probably one of the best all around players on tour right now:

SG: off the tee: 29th

approach to green: 14th

around the green: 29th

putting: 98th

tee to green: 11th

total: 12th

Given putting is always his worst stat by far and it looks funky as heck, I hate to agree with Faldo but time to change whatever you call what he's doing right now.

 

[Showtime9]

 

[NJpatbee]

Until he can put it together on Sundays I see Tony winning perhaps 2 or 3 more tournaments if he has a big lead going into the final round. I have never spoken to the man but my two cents says its mental.

[me05501]

It's hard to succeed when "failure" pays so well.

[miamistomp]

If I was him I would try a weaker tourny such as Barracuda and see if I could get used to winning

 

[chigolfer1]

haha, I mean the 3M had a SOF of 197 (vs. 800+ for the Memorial for reference) and he was outplayed by Michael Thompson, the 215th ranked player going in, on Sunday.