A numerical analysis of Rory McIlroy's last 7 seasons

[Vikingdrewby]

I did a numerical analysis of Rory McIlroy's last seven seasons.

 

Some noteworthy highlights:

• By a considerable margin, this season features the most variance between his worst round of the season (round 2 - an atrocious 71.6) and the best round of his season (round 4 - an unreal 68.0). For a pro to shoot 3.6 strokes lower between one set of rounds and another is almost impossible to fathom. Granted, the sample size is very small, but it's hard to blame such a MASSIVE gap on a small sample size alone.
• Over the past seven years, Rory is half a stroke better on the weekends as compared to the weekdays. That's a real lot for such a relatively robust sample size.
• Last season was perhaps his worst on Tour, which is odd considering that he led the Tour in birdie average last season. But his bogey numbers last season were atrocious.
• Although his birdie average is nowhere near as good this season as it was last year (falling from 1st to 39th), his bogey average has dramatically decreased. We saw several impressive par-saving putts early on today, and his scoring average rank his risen from a pedestrian (by his lofty standards) of 16 last year to 2 this year.
• Unsurprisingly to anyone with memories of his opening swing at the 2019 Open Championship in his native Northern Ireland, the worst round of his career has been Round 1, with a gap of 0.8 strokes between Round 1 and his weekend average. That's a REAL LOT for a pro golfer in a 125+ tournament sample size.
• His 2019 season was utterly remarkable. First in bogey average rank and second in birdie average rank. Unreal. Such a shame that he played so poorly in the majors that season.

[cav5]

i think rory just steps on the tee and assumes he'll make 6 birdies and just lets the cards fall as they may

[bladehunter]

11 minutes ago, cav5 said:

i think rory just steps on the tee and assumes he'll make 6 birdies and just lets the cards fall as they may

I agree.  And I kind of relate to that thinking.  But I wished I understood more about how to work around better. 
 

for instance I watched rory try to hit a pw 147 plus 7 yards uphill in 55 degree weather with a false front and a pin perched on the edge of that ridge.  Of course it was easy to predict the ball coming up a yard  short and spinning back off.    Why oh why couldn’t you just hit the soft 9 ????   And I say that knowing that I’m prone to the same.  In the moment I’ll hit what I see.  And seconds later , I’ll see the other play , and want to slap myself.  But I have an excuse. I don’t have a caddie. Rory Should have a caddy that’s willing to snap a club if it keeps him from hitting the stupid shot. He doesn’t have that.  Wish he did. 

Edited May 9, 2022 by bladehunter

[third-times-a-charm]

He just walks up and expects to play well? Birdies but also bogeys just as much? Overestimates his abilities sometimes? Wild scoring swings and odd stats? 

 

It's like looking in the mirror!

Edited May 9, 2022 by third-times-a-charm

[No_Catchy_Nickname]

7 minutes ago, bladehunter said:

for instance I watched rory try to hit a pw 147 7 yards uphill in 55 degree weather with a false front and a pin perched on the edge of that ridge.  Of course it was easy to predict the ball coming up a year short and spinning back off.    

 

His ball came up a year short? That just proves his golf is in a different dimension to the rest of us!🤣

 

Actually, your point about the role his caddy played reminded me of something I read about his split with JP FitzGerald.

In a interview a few years later he said, "“It was partly to do with him and mostly to do with me. I wasn’t playing the best and was frustrated at myself and taking it out on him. And whether that was [related] to a club I’d hit or wanted to hit or … but it was not good. And it’s something I would never do with Harry. Never.” (From: Link)

 

I'm not entirely sure what to make of that quote because he doesn't really complete the sentence, but it does sound like he hits what he wants and doesn't want the caddy's advice. Which kind of agrees with your point, I think.

 

Or perhaps I'm reading too much into a single quote of McIlroy's.

[bladehunter]

18 minutes ago, No_Catchy_Nickname said:

 

His ball came up a year short? That just proves his golf is in a different dimension to the rest of us!🤣

 

Actually, your point about the role his caddy played reminded me of something I read about his split with JP FitzGerald.

In a interview a few years later he said, "“It was partly to do with him and mostly to do with me. I wasn’t playing the best and was frustrated at myself and taking it out on him. And whether that was [related] to a club I’d hit or wanted to hit or … but it was not good. And it’s something I would never do with Harry. Never.” (From: Link)

 

I'm not entirely sure what to make of that quote because he doesn't really complete the sentence, but it does sound like he hits what he wants and doesn't want the caddy's advice. Which kind of agrees with your point, I think.

 

Or perhaps I'm reading too much into a single quote of McIlroy's.

Lol. You beat me to the edit. 
 

 

 

yes. Sounds like he admits his part , but also doesn’t want someone to call him out ?  I’m different, I enjoy being called out when I’m wrong.  This is how we learn.  But you need to be correct. Not just have a differing opinion. 
 

a blind man given the specs of that shot I described would have yelled “ break  his fing pitching wedge before he hits it “!  Lol. 
 

i suppose there’s some alternate universe where he gets that wedge past the hole and it comes back and goes in.  But man that’s a one in 500 shot.  
 

i absolutely was wanting him to come back yesterday and win. But in my heart I knew . I knew . 
 

side note. And underrated caddie.  Max homas.  That guy I caught on mic a couple times and his strategy talk and positive vibes while still saying no when needed is exactly what I’d want.  Really really smart sounding guy.  

[oikos1]

Nice work.  Pretty much shows that Rory has all the skill to be a generational golfer and ten plus major wins.  He either never had that special intangible for winning big or lost it somewhere along the way.  He'll have his moments and perhaps a few more majors if he plays for another twenty years because he is so skilled, but no longer can be considered a threat to Jack or Tiger. 

 

Kind of a bummer because it would have been fun to watch.  There really is no one in professional golf right now that can be talked about like that.

[smashdn]

I have long said that he is most always good for one terd of round out of four.  Rarely is it the final round though.  He will usually dig himself a hole and in the final round battle back to a top ten or better finish.

 

You are just left thinking, "Man, if he didn't have that 75 mixed in there."

 

 

[CasualLie]

That's a lot of number crunching when this would suffice as analyzing Rory's last 7 years...

 

 

 

[bscinstnct]

Rory is toast. 
 

His skills are declining, as expected, as a power player who needs peak short game to compete. He works, I’m sure, but has gone on record that there are more important things than golf and it won’t bother him much if he doesn’t win a masters. 
 

And he has like 100MM bucks.

 

Who knows, with all his blustering about the LIV being dead, I wouldn’t be surprised if a few years from now he takes a big check from them and goes to play against competition he can actually beat.

 

 

 

 

Edited May 9, 2022 by bscinstnct

[Medson]

Love the analysis. One takeaway is that it seems avoiding bogeys will have more impact than making birdies w.r.t scoring averages. 

[woodriff]

One thing I did notice. Rory seemed to be swinging more freely than in the past, much like the days of yore. As always in his game it’s all the little things. 3 good rounds then a clanker. 
 

The caddie relationship is interesting. I once played in the city open, and told my guy to never let me hit driver on a certain hole. He handed me a 3 wood, and then I changed my mind. Caddy didn’t stop me. Ended up with a duck hook. 
 

I think at this level it’s a team. Your playing for money for both player and caddie. The player should play well for the caddie and vice versa. If he can get into the mindset of playing for your caddie it’ll give him a different perspective.

Edited May 9, 2022 by woodriff

[macnewma]

I'd put the larger decline on the lack of a caddie. JP was an average but professional caddie. Harry might be a decent player and great guy, but he is completely useless for reading greens.

I hear many people discount the value of a caddie to a tour pro. I counter that with Tiger. Tiger is one of the most disciplined course managers and exceptional green readers of all time. Yet he has had three full time caddies. Fluff, Stevie and LaCava. All three are regarded as among the most skilled caddies on tour. LaCava was on Couples bag for his 92 Masters. Stevie caddied for Norman's 86 Open win. Fluff had been on tour for 20 years.

Tiger probably needs a skilled caddie less than anyone and yet he doesn't mess around with a friend on the bag. In fact he went for top talent. Outside of Tiger, Rory could probably sign on nearly any caddie of his choice given how much he earns.

Also look at how Scheffler's career has taken off since he signed on Ted Scott. Scheffler clearly had the ability, but in a game where only a few strokes separate winners from losers every little bit counts.

Rory might really enjoy his time with Harry on the bag, but it isn't optimal. Even with Rory's talent he isn't good enough to leave that on the table relative to his competition.

[gvogel]

5 hours ago, cav5 said:

i think rory just steps on the tee and assumes he'll make 6 birdies and just lets the cards fall as they may

I think it takes him two or three rounds to get the feel for the greens.  And I think that he quits thinking so much as he goes along.

[m d g]

6 hours ago, No_Catchy_Nickname said:

His ball came up a year short? That just proves his golf is in a different dimension to the rest of us!🤣

 

You don't have to fire at every pin. If the safe shot is to hit it 4 yards farther then maybe that is the smart thing to do. If you hit it close, great. If not, take your par and move on to a hole with a better chance of birdie.

 

I get it...these guys are good. But even great golfers should know enough to pick their spots.

[Mr.Cleeks]

Good analysis! I think Rory is really close to going on a tear. Looking at his stats, everything looks solid. He could clean up the approaches a little, but this is the best Rory's short game/putting has looked since 2014. He hasn't had a legit chance to win since CJ Cup (he never had a chance to win at Augusta, needed a 61 just force a playoff lol).

[ShortStick]

What am I missing here? The guy is 4th in official money in only 7 events.  Everybody else in the top 40 has played at least 10 events. Yet I read that McIlroy is atrocious and should listen to his caddie more??

 

Sorry, I want to get it but I just don’t. I guess the OP’s analysis shows that McIlroy gets better results this year when he makes fewer bogies. Or that by including tournaments where he’s off-form missing the cut, his round 1 & 2 scores are worse than his weekend scores where he’s often in contention.. Shouldn’t that be the case for most everybody?

 

Is the point that mcIlroy would do better than 4 top tens in 7 events if he improved his round 1 scores? I love numbers, but I could use some help here.

[AntLockyer]

On 5/9/2022 at 3:05 AM, Vikingdrewby said:

I did a numerical analysis of Rory McIlroy's last seven seasons.

 

Some noteworthy highlights:

• By a considerable margin, this season features the most variance between his worst round of the season (round 2 - an atrocious 71.6) and the best round of his season (round 4 - an unreal 68.0). For a pro to shoot 3.6 strokes lower between one set of rounds and another is almost impossible to fathom. Granted, the sample size is very small, but it's hard to blame such a MASSIVE gap on a small sample size alone.
• Over the past seven years, Rory is half a stroke better on the weekends as compared to the weekdays. That's a real lot for such a relatively robust sample size.
• Last season was perhaps his worst on Tour, which is odd considering that he led the Tour in birdie average last season. But his bogey numbers last season were atrocious.
• Although his birdie average is nowhere near as good this season as it was last year (falling from 1st to 39th), his bogey average has dramatically decreased. We saw several impressive par-saving putts early on today, and his scoring average rank his risen from a pedestrian (by his lofty standards) of 16 last year to 2 this year.
• Unsurprisingly to anyone with memories of his opening swing at the 2019 Open Championship in his native Northern Ireland, the worst round of his career has been Round 1, with a gap of 0.8 strokes between Round 1 and his weekend average. That's a REAL LOT for a pro golfer in a 125+ tournament sample size.
• His 2019 season was utterly remarkable. First in bogey average rank and second in birdie average rank. Unreal. Such a shame that he played so poorly in the majors that season.

I'd love to see number of rounds used in each of these and some of the numbers you are comparing too. e.g. "For a pro to shoot 3.6 strokes lower between one set of rounds and another is almost impossible to fathom." It isn't to me as I have no baseline.

[AntLockyer]

4 minutes ago, AntLockyer said:

I'd love to see number of rounds used in each of these and some of the numbers you are comparing too. e.g. "For a pro to shoot 3.6 strokes lower between one set of rounds and another is almost impossible to fathom." It isn't to me as I have no baseline.

Had a quick look myself (on the PGA tour website, would love to get my hands on the actual data instead). 

 

Xander Schauffele had a 2.86 stroke difference between rounds 2 and 3 for the 2021 season

Russell Henley had a 2.5 stroke difference betweenRounds 1 and 2 in 2021

 

Not quite 3.6 though, would be interesting to see averages and compared to things like money earned etc. 

[iBanesto]

Anyone collated McIlroy's approach proximity to the hole and putting SG for the last 7 years?

 

[bscinstnct]

7 hours ago, ShortStick said:

What am I missing here? The guy is 4th in official money in only 7 events.  Everybody else in the top 40 has played at least 10 events. Yet I read that McIlroy is atrocious and should listen to his caddie more??

 

Sorry, I want to get it but I just don’t. I guess the OP’s analysis shows that McIlroy gets better results this year when he makes fewer bogies. Or that by including tournaments where he’s off-form missing the cut, his round 1 & 2 scores are worse than his weekend scores where he’s often in contention.. Shouldn’t that be the case for most everybody?

 

Is the point that mcIlroy would do better than 4 top tens in 7 events if he improved his round 1 scores? I love numbers, but I could use some help here.

 

8 years ago, Rory was tracking right there with Tiger and Jack in majors yo!

 

Now he’s zilch in majors for 7.25 years. 
 

So, everybody trying to figure this out right? And, in line with your post, we hear some say that his results are fine.

 

4 top 10s in 7 events?!

 

Scottie Scheffler WIN 4 out of his last 6! Including the Masters!

 

That used to be Rory. 
 

Now, this is Rory

 

 

 

Rory is a great guy. But he’s 33 and winning from here will just keep getting harder for him. 

 

Edited May 10, 2022 by bscinstnct

[GolfTurkey]

I've said it before, but if there's one guy on tour whose play screams "I need Decade", it's Rory.

 

Apart from his well-documented issues with over-aggressive targets and swings with short irons and wedges, I've lost count of the number of times I've seen him butcher a par 5 with a mid iron approach for his second.

 

You can see him clearly take dead aim at sucker pins, hit a decent enough shot but miss a bit on the short side and the ball careens off down a slope and he has to grind to make 5. All he had to do was aim for the middle of the green for an almost guaranteed birdie and occasional eagle, but he tries to force eagles.

 

IMO In general he tries to force things and even for someone with his talent that's really hard to do except on the days with his A game or final rounds when he is out of contention and then back doors a top 10. I would love too see him pick more conservative targets and let it happen 

[Vikingdrewby]

*excellent* point there on the 'careening'. I'm always stunned to see a par 5 on Rory's card.

[macnewma]

12 hours ago, GolfTurkey said:

I've said it before, but if there's one guy on tour whose play screams "I need Decade", it's Rory.

 

Apart from his well-documented issues with over-aggressive targets and swings with short irons and wedges, I've lost count of the number of times I've seen him butcher a par 5 with a mid iron approach for his second.

 

You can see him clearly take dead aim at sucker pins, hit a decent enough shot but miss a bit on the short side and the ball careens off down a slope and he has to grind to make 5. All he had to do was aim for the middle of the green for an almost guaranteed birdie and occasional eagle, but he tries to force eagles.

 

IMO In general he tries to force things and even for someone with his talent that's really hard to do except on the days with his A game or final rounds when he is out of contention and then back doors a top 10. I would love too see him pick more conservative targets and let it happen 

 

Agreed. Generally speaking that is the role of the caddie. Most of these guys have to be talked out of aggressive targets. A strong caddie almost always pushes for higher percentage targets.

I think there are some other things at play too. Tiger talked about playing aggressively to conservative targets. That is easier said than done. I think Rory tends to only combine aggressive to high risk targets or passive to low risk targets. He sometimes switches between modes through a round.

It is likely attributable to some of his exceptional early success. This approach was reinforced by him lapping the field early in his career. He never seemed to get burned by it then and he developed bad habits.

Tiger played that way in 97 at the Masters. He was wild and aggressive but it obviously paid off. But somewhere between 97 and 2000, he learned to play aggressively to conservative targets and it resulted in that run. Butch didn't just work on the mechanics. He also molded Tiger into a great game manager. To Tiger's credit, he was receptive to it. That is rare given the success he had being hyper aggressive.

[CasualLie]

I am tempted to say "wouldn't it be great if Rory had TW on the bag for a round or two to learn proper course management for a champion?!?"  But then I remind myself JT is supposedly getting all kinds of advice from TW; how's that working out?!

 

 

[Vikingdrewby]

by a couple of shots, Round 2 has been Rory's worst round of this season.

 

I think that a 2-under 68 would leave him in an excellent spot heading into the weekend.

[Vikingdrewby]

Rory struggling in a 2022 second round?!?!? Who saw that coming?

[Choclab]

I like Rory a lot, but it's so frustrating watching him swing out of his shoes with short irons and wedges.  Why do people do that?   How do you hit a great drive and then leave yourself 35 feet from 130 yards so many times without changing?  When you're a kid maybe I get it, but after many years of doing that, wouldn't it be more fun to hit a 3/4 shot and leave yourself inside 10 feet?

 

I just don't get it.  I guess he's like a Mickelson or Greg Norman in that he loves hitting it hard more than hitting it close.

[puttingmatt]

At 33, I am thinking Rory will have a good career, he may even win a few more times, but nothing that noteworthy.

[drakey]

On 5/11/2022 at 11:00 PM, CasualLie said:

I am tempted to say "wouldn't it be great if Rory had TW on the bag for a round or two to learn proper course management for a champion?!?"  But then I remind myself JT is supposedly getting all kinds of advice from TW; how's that working out?!

 

 

Pretty well!