A numerical analysis of Rory McIlroy's last 7 seasons

[JohnnyCashForever]

On 5/8/2022 at 10:05 PM, Vikingdrewby said:

I did a numerical analysis of Rory McIlroy's last seven seasons.

 

Some noteworthy highlights:

• By a considerable margin, this season features the most variance between his worst round of the season (round 2 - an atrocious 71.6) and the best round of his season (round 4 - an unreal 68.0). For a pro to shoot 3.6 strokes lower between one set of rounds and another is almost impossible to fathom. Granted, the sample size is very small, but it's hard to blame such a MASSIVE gap on a small sample size alone.
• Over the past seven years, Rory is half a stroke better on the weekends as compared to the weekdays. That's a real lot for such a relatively robust sample size.
• Last season was perhaps his worst on Tour, which is odd considering that he led the Tour in birdie average last season. But his bogey numbers last season were atrocious.
• Although his birdie average is nowhere near as good this season as it was last year (falling from 1st to 39th), his bogey average has dramatically decreased. We saw several impressive par-saving putts early on today, and his scoring average rank his risen from a pedestrian (by his lofty standards) of 16 last year to 2 this year.
• Unsurprisingly to anyone with memories of his opening swing at the 2019 Open Championship in his native Northern Ireland, the worst round of his career has been Round 1, with a gap of 0.8 strokes between Round 1 and his weekend average. That's a REAL LOT for a pro golfer in a 125+ tournament sample size.
• His 2019 season was utterly remarkable. First in bogey average rank and second in birdie average rank. Unreal. Such a shame that he played so poorly in the majors that season.

Cool, but, IMO, the most important stat for Rory is proximity to the hole from the fairway with a half-to-3/4 wedge in his hand.  According to the PGA Tour website, he ranks 182 in proximity to the flag from 75-100 yards.  From 100-125 yards, he's T175.  Seems that there is a lot of low hanging fruit here for him and his coaches.         

 

  

[EagleAteBirdie]

On 5/21/2022 at 2:21 PM, Choclab said:

I like Rory a lot, but it's so frustrating watching him swing out of his shoes with short irons and wedges.  Why do people do that?   How do you hit a great drive and then leave yourself 35 feet from 130 yards so many times without changing?  When you're a kid maybe I get it, but after many years of doing that, wouldn't it be more fun to hit a 3/4 shot and leave yourself inside 10 feet?

 

I just don't get it.  I guess he's like a Mickelson or Greg Norman in that he loves hitting it hard more than hitting it close.

 

Ego.  Even 10 caps know that you can't control spin swinging flat out with wedges.  When I have watched Rory play in person he struts around in such a way that makes it difficult not to think that image is more important to him than the score card.  Just like when he corrected Chamblee's comment a few years back on his lack of commitment now that he had 100m in the bank; his response - actually its 200m.  Rory is very image conscious and distance et all is important to him.  

 

He is entertaining the crowd, his ego (or inferiority complex) and his buddy (caddy) at the cost of an all-time great career.

 

I am a big fan but he can be so frustrating to watch sometimes.

 

[jmcm87]

2 hours ago, EagleAteBirdie said:

 

Ego.  Even 10 caps know that you can't control spin swinging flat out with wedges.  When I have watched Rory play in person he struts around in such a way that makes it difficult not to think that image is more important to him than the score card.  Just like when he corrected Chamblee's comment a few years back on his lack of commitment now that he had 100m in the bank; his response - actually its 200m.  Rory is very image conscious and distance et all is important to him.  

 

He is entertaining the crowd, his ego (or inferiority complex) and his buddy (caddy) at the cost of an all-time great career.

 

I am a big fan but he can be so frustrating to watch sometimes.

 

So the question is, was he acting in this manner during his major wins? 

[Ferguson]

On 5/9/2022 at 2:04 PM, macnewma said:

I'd put the larger decline on the lack of a caddie. JP was an average but professional caddie. Harry might be a decent player and great guy, but he is completely useless for reading greens.

I hear many people discount the value of a caddie to a tour pro. I counter that with Tiger. Tiger is one of the most disciplined course managers and exceptional green readers of all time. Yet he has had three full time caddies. Fluff, Stevie and LaCava. All three are regarded as among the most skilled caddies on tour. LaCava was on Couples bag for his 92 Masters. Stevie caddied for Norman's 86 Open win. Fluff had been on tour for 20 years.

Tiger probably needs a skilled caddie less than anyone and yet he doesn't mess around with a friend on the bag. In fact he went for top talent. Outside of Tiger, Rory could probably sign on nearly any caddie of his choice given how much he earns.

Also look at how Scheffler's career has taken off since he signed on Ted Scott. Scheffler clearly had the ability, but in a game where only a few strokes separate winners from losers every little bit counts.

Rory might really enjoy his time with Harry on the bag, but it isn't optimal. Even with Rory's talent he isn't good enough to leave that on the table relative to his competition.

 

 

Yeah right, Scheffler.   MC this week, but that's not Ted Scott's fault?  Nope. 

 

This caddie stuff always shows up when the "depth of talent" conversation runs dry and a player fails to win. 

 

 

 

Rory is an immensely talented player.  That guy needs inspiration to overcome his mental struggles. 

 

 

 

 

[smashdn]

65

71

74

68

 

Solo 8th place.

 

Rory doing typical Rory things.

 

[Shakespeare]

13 hours ago, JohnnyCashForever said:

Cool, but, IMO, the most important stat for Rory is proximity to the hole from the fairway with a half-to-3/4 wedge in his hand.  According to the PGA Tour website, he ranks 182 in proximity to the flag from 75-100 yards.  From 100-125 yards, he's T175.  Seems that there is a lot of low hanging fruit here for him and his coaches.         

 

  

This^^^^^^^

[EagleAteBirdie]

On 5/23/2022 at 3:01 PM, jmcm87 said:

So the question is, was he acting in this manner during his major wins? 

 

Not with his early wins in my opinion.  He was more free spirited back then, walked around with clown hair and played without fear or consequence. 

 

[r0scoe]

This weekend was classic Rory, throw up a stinker and lose by the amount over par he was in that stinker round. 

 

But even with that, if a couple of those lip outs fall in sunday, he is in that playoff. Golf ain't easy

[BombinJim]

On 5/23/2022 at 9:52 AM, smashdn said:

65

71

74

68

 

Solo 8th place.

 

Rory doing typical Rory things.

 

I heard he has the lowest cumulative score when considering all majors this year. I wish that counted for something…

[smashdn]

On 5/24/2022 at 6:45 PM, BombinJim said:

I heard he has the lowest cumulative score when considering all majors this year. I wish that counted for something…

 

Delta Skymiles.  He is eligible for 50,000 bonus Delta Skymiles.

[me05501]

Recently Rory said something like “If 10-year old Rory knew where we’ve ended up he’d be thrilled.” I like that attitude. 
 

We might as well get used to a different sort of standard for what a great career looks like in this era. Maybe earnings per start would be a good metric. Because Rory, Ricky, DJ, etc are going to be perfectly happy making bank and winning the odd trophy here and there. 

 

Honestly I think they realize that no one is going to catch Tiger on majors, let alone Jack. Maybe a lifetime grand slam is a stretch goal, or winning the FedEx Cup once or more. 

Edited May 26, 2022 by me05501

[cav5]

Rory just needs a major to basically fall in his lap at this point I think. Maybe the joy of winning will spark him on a run. Being in 1st after day one was almost a bad outcome from him.

 

Everytime he knows he's near the lead you start seeing him leaning and to eager to get off his back foot with driver.

[smashdn]

3 hours ago, me05501 said:

Honestly I think they realize that no one is going to catch Tiger on majors, let alone Jack. Maybe a lifetime grand slam is a stretch goal, or winning the FedEx Cup once or more. 

 

10 career majors gets you to sole fourth on the list.  https://www.golflink.com/facts_35104_golfers-with-the-most-major-championship-wins.html  

 

I don't think that is that too lofty a goal given the talent and youth these guys have.

 

Once you get above six you really move up spots on the all-time list with each subsequent win.  You might not ever sniff Jack or Tiger but you can certainly be in rarified air.

Edited May 26, 2022 by smashdn

[smashdn]

Rory gonna Rory.

[MUNIGRIT]

43 minutes ago, smashdn said:

Rory gonna Rory.

As expected considering the unsustainable lengths and SG putting he was doing. He made a lot today but it is covering up some ball striking with an unsustainable lengths on the green.  I faded him last 2 days because of it.

Edited June 19, 2022 by MUNIGRIT

[Tasals]

7 minutes ago, MUNIGRIT said:

As expected considering the unsustainable lengths and SG putting he was doing. He wasn't going to keep making putts he was. I faded him last 2 days because of it.

His putter wasnt exactly that cold, he was driving it terribly, made a few long putts for par or to save bogey. Quite a few guys had hot starts and cold finishes or cold starts and even colder finishes, with a 67 being the low round of the day a 73 isnt great, but its not bad. 7 guys with a round 3 under par, and 20 guys with a better round than him including those 7. He isnt exactly out of it. Weather is supposed to settle down slightly for sunday and be a bit better for the afternoon wave.  Rory isnt out of the tournament.

[MUNIGRIT]

1 minute ago, Tasals said:

His putter wasnt exactly that cold, he was driving it terribly, made a few long putts for par or to save bogey. Quite a few guys had hot starts and cold finishes or cold starts and even colder finishes, with a 67 being the low round of the day a 73 isnt great, but its not bad. 7 guys with a round 3 under par, and 20 guys with a better round than him including those 7. He isnt exactly out of it. Weather is supposed to settle down slightly for sunday and be a bit better for the afternoon wave.  Rory isnt out of the tournament.

He would be completely put of it if he wasn't making the 100 plus feet per round like he is which isnt sustainable. 

[Golfer4Life]

On 5/9/2022 at 8:12 AM, bladehunter said:

I agree.  And I kind of relate to that thinking.  But I wished I understood more about how to work around better. 
 

for instance I watched rory try to hit a pw 147 plus 7 yards uphill in 55 degree weather with a false front and a pin perched on the edge of that ridge.  Of course it was easy to predict the ball coming up a yard  short and spinning back off.    Why oh why couldn’t you just hit the soft 9 ????   And I say that knowing that I’m prone to the same.  In the moment I’ll hit what I see.  And seconds later , I’ll see the other play , and want to slap myself.  But I have an excuse. I don’t have a caddie. Rory Should have a caddy that’s willing to snap a club if it keeps him from hitting the stupid shot. He doesn’t have that.  Wish he did. 

Friends don't let friends drive drunk.

 

I have said that ad nauseam for a few years. He needs a professional caddy, not his drinking buddy.

 

Diamond may be a nice mate, but I think he has been one of the reasons McIlroy is stuck on neutral.

 

My opinion of course.

[Valtiel]

On 5/9/2022 at 6:12 AM, bladehunter said:

I agree.  And I kind of relate to that thinking.  But I wished I understood more about how to work around better. 
 

for instance I watched rory try to hit a pw 147 plus 7 yards uphill in 55 degree weather with a false front and a pin perched on the edge of that ridge.  Of course it was easy to predict the ball coming up a yard  short and spinning back off.    Why oh why couldn’t you just hit the soft 9???? 

 

On 5/9/2022 at 11:04 AM, macnewma said:

I'd put the larger decline on the lack of a caddie. JP was an average but professional caddie. Harry might be a decent player and great guy, but he is completely useless for reading greens.

I hear many people discount the value of a caddie to a tour pro.

 

On 5/11/2022 at 6:49 AM, macnewma said:

I think there are some other things at play too. Tiger talked about playing aggressively to conservative targets. That is easier said than done. I think Rory tends to only combine aggressive to high risk targets or passive to low risk targets. He sometimes switches between modes through a round.

It is likely attributable to some of his exceptional early success. This approach was reinforced by him lapping the field early in his career. He never seemed to get burned by it then and he developed bad habits.

 

On 5/21/2022 at 6:21 AM, Choclab said:

I like Rory a lot, but it's so frustrating watching him swing out of his shoes with short irons and wedges.  Why do people do that?   How do you hit a great drive and then leave yourself 35 feet from 130 yards so many times without changing?

Great points here. As someone that is always equal parts amazed and baffled by Rory, there has to be something to his ups and downs more than just typical "golf is hard". His ceiling is as high as anyone's in terms of raw talent, and yet his inability to avoid the almost amateur mistakes in terms of course management can't be ignored. For years we've been hearing broadcasters say some version of "that is just unacceptable from ____ yards" or "what a mistake with such a short club in his hand", and it just keeps going and going. I think such an abundance of raw talent can start working against you because you ARE going to make mistakes out there, and to be so good that you believe you can always hit every single shot is practically a guarantee that when you DO make a mistake that it's going to cost you more. His 3w on 18 in Dubai is a perfect example. It feels like he never made that transition to accepting that idea Tiger talked about "everyone's good is good out here, but how good is your bad". 

With regards to caddies, I don't know that a real "pro" in that regard would solve much because we get the vibe that Rory wants to do what he wants to do, and to have a Stevie Williams try to talk sense into him and take away his toys would probably just lead to that person getting fired. I can see a 60y/o Rory looking back and thinking "I should have stopped acting like the gifted special kid out there that could hit every shot and learned when to take my medicine......and figured out how to flight a f****** wedge". 😆

Edited June 19, 2022 by Valtiel

[bladehunter]

4 hours ago, Valtiel said:

 

 

 

Great points here. As someone that is always equal parts amazed and baffled by Rory, there has to be something to his ups and downs more than just typical "golf is hard". His ceiling is as high as anyone's in terms of raw talent, and yet his inability to avoid the almost amateur mistakes in terms of course management can't be ignored. For years we've been hearing broadcasters say some version of "that is just unacceptable from ____ yards" or "what a mistake with such a short club in his hand", and it just keeps going and going. I think such an abundance of raw talent can start working against you because you ARE going to make mistakes out there, and to be so good that you believe you can always hit every single shot is practically a guarantee that when you DO make a mistake that it's going to cost you more. His 3w on 18 in Dubai is a perfect example. It feels like he never made that transition to accepting that idea Tiger talked about "everyone's good is good out here, but how good is your bad". 

With regards to caddies, I don't know that a real "pro" in that regard would solve much because we get the vibe that Rory wants to do what he wants to do, and to have a Stevie Williams try to talk sense into him and take away his toys would probably just lead to that person getting fired. I can see a 60y/o Rory looking back and thinking "I should have stopped acting like the gifted special kid out there that could hit every shot and learned when to take my medicine......and figured out how to flight a f****** wedge". 😆

Yep. Good post.  

 

rory had another one of those wedges yesterday on 15 ( I think that’s the right hole ) he hit a 370 some odd yard drive just short of the road.  Then has 100 or so in.  Looks like he tried to juice a lob wedge.  Blocks it short right into the bunker. Does make par.  I’m standing there like “wtf-   12 handicaps can hit that shot Rory “.    Learn the soft sand wedge for Pete’s sake. 
 

my personal fix to that very scenario is a self imposed limit on lob wedge.  80 yards or 90 down hill or a big wind behind.  There is no plus to trying to hit it harder. 
 

but then there’s the off speed shots he tries to hit.  He can miss just as big with those.  
 

so I agree. I think he should forget the fade.  Find a straight hold shot. And the natural shape he has.  A draw.  After that. He’s got to be hitting 2 hours of wedges a day at least.  I don’t buy what someone else said. That he had too much fast twitch ( as if thats possible. ) and just couldn’t learn the shots.  Baloney.  He practices what he loves. Driver. You have to make yourself practice way you don’t love.  I think he’s fired up.  So I look for a special round today.  

[airjammer]

1 hour ago, bladehunter said:

Yep. Good post.  

 

rory had another one of those wedges yesterday on 15 ( I think that’s the right hole ) he hit a 370 some odd yard drive just short of the road.  Then has 100 or so in.  Looks like he tried to juice a lob wedge.  Blocks it short right into the bunker. Does make par.  I’m standing there like “wtf-   12 handicaps can hit that shot Rory “.    Learn the soft sand wedge for Pete’s sake. 
 

my personal fix to that very scenario is a self imposed limit on lob wedge.  80 yards or 90 down hill or a big wind behind.  There is no plus to trying to hit it harder. 
 

but then there’s the off speed shots he tries to hit.  He can miss just as big with those.  
 

so I agree. I think he should forget the fade.  Find a straight hold shot. And the natural shape he has.  A draw.  After that. He’s got to be hitting 2 hours of wedges a day at least.  I don’t buy what someone else said. That he had too much fast twitch ( as if thats possible. ) and just couldn’t learn the shots.  Baloney.  He practices what he loves. Driver. You have to make yourself practice way you don’t love.  I think he’s fired up.  So I look for a special round today.  

Some people’s swing just requires speed for the timing to work. As many balls as Rory has hit over his lifetime, I’m pretty sure he and his coach as figured out that his off speed shots are worse than his 100%. Everyone has a weakness and his long game is so good, I’m not altering his game to develop a “wedge” swing that may creep into the rest of his swing. 

[bladehunter]

1 hour ago, airjammer said:

Some people’s swing just requires speed for the timing to work. As many balls as Rory has hit over his lifetime, I’m pretty sure he and his coach as figured out that his off speed shots are worse than his 100%. Everyone has a weakness and his long game is so good, I’m not altering his game to develop a “wedge” swing that may creep into the rest of his swing. 

Nah.  It doesn’t need to be “ slower “. Just less.  You can hit a 10 yard less sand wedge  just by less backswing length . 
 

easily proven by watching him hit a 35 yard pitch.  It’s not a full swing.  And yet. He’s good at that.  Tempo remains yet backswing is shorter .   I think it comes down to what he practices.  You don’t see him out hitting 100 yard pw.  But you saw tiger doing it.  You see JT doing it.  Etc. 
 

we saw what DJ did once he committed  to his wedge game.  
 

but let’s play devils advocate.  If what you say is true. He actually needs to hit much  less driver.  Why ?  To use your theory. He’d need to leave himself only full swings.  So pw and up. 

Edited June 19, 2022 by bladehunter

[Choclab]

Glad this got bumped because it's great to see Rory the last few weeks *is* using that sawed-off kind of finish to take some speed off his short irons.  And what do you know, he's hitting them much closer.  Not sure what triggered the change, but I hope he keeps it up.

 

Though I do wonder if he can.  Phil did the same thing where he'd play great with those 3/4 irons for a while but then wouldn't keep doing it for whatever reason.  I guess it's just something about the personality that makes them want to swing all out.  Hope Rory doesn't fall prey to that.

[airjammer]

1 hour ago, bladehunter said:

Nah.  It doesn’t need to be “ slower “. Just less.  You can hit a 10 yard less sand wedge  just by less backswing length . 
 

easily proven by watching him hit a 35 yard pitch.  It’s not a full swing.  And yet. He’s good at that.  Tempo remains yet backswing is shorter .   I think it comes down to what he practices.  You don’t see him out hitting 100 yard pw.  But you saw tiger doing it.  You see JT doing it.  Etc. 
 

we saw what DJ did once he committed  to his wedge game.  
 

but let’s play devils advocate.  If what you say is true. He actually needs to hit much  less driver.  Why ?  To use your theory. He’d need to leave himself only full swings.  So pw and up. 

Hitting a 35 yard pitch has different mechanics involved..they aren’t comparable.  Nobody plays as big as a push draw like him except maybe Bryson and he’s not good at those shots either.  Rory has is own swing but it’s not good at everything just like fading the ball. 

Without doing a deep dive in the stats my guess is that he’s still better with a wedge than PW regardless of the distance, his proximity from the hole probably doesn’t drop as much as others. If that’s the case there is nothing he really can do besides make sure it’s a area of emphasis for practice but just don’t beat himself up about it. 

 

[bladehunter]

2 hours ago, airjammer said:

Hitting a 35 yard pitch has different mechanics involved..they aren’t comparable.  Nobody plays as big as a push draw like him except maybe Bryson and he’s not good at those shots either.  Rory has is own swing but it’s not good at everything just like fading the ball. 

Without doing a deep dive in the stats my guess is that he’s still better with a wedge than PW regardless of the distance, his proximity from the hole probably doesn’t drop as much as others. If that’s the case there is nothing he really can do besides make sure it’s a area of emphasis for practice but just don’t beat himself up about it. 

 

Not really different mechanics. If it is. Then we’ve found the issue. 
 

im not trying to be obtuse. But if he has a coach that’s telling him he “can’t” be a good wedge player.  Fire  the coach. 

[airjammer]

He has access to the very best instructors and instruction equipment it’s not like they don’t know what tends to go wrong with the wedge swing. They obviously can’t fix it without affect something else.  
 

I don’t know what his coaches are telling him but as much talent as he has and quarter million balls or so he has hit in his lifetime…I’d say that I don’t believe he can be a much better wedge player and keep everything else the same. 
 

Tiger never figured out the big headed driver…so it’s entirely possible Rory may never figure out a elite wedge swing. 

[MUNIGRIT]

4 minutes ago, airjammer said:

He has access to the very best instructors and instruction equipment it’s not like they don’t know what tends to go wrong with the wedge swing. They obviously can’t fix it without affect something else.  
 

I don’t know what his coaches are telling him but as much talent as he has and quarter million balls or so he has hit in his lifetime…I’d say that I don’t believe he can be a much better wedge player and keep everything else the same. 
 

Tiger never figured out the big headed driver…so it’s entirely possible Rory may never figure out a elite wedge swing. 

Too many instructors can be an issue. 

[oikos1]

It ain't mechanics, it ain't fast twitch, it ain't his coach. 

 

Anyone who has played a reasonable amount of golf knows what his issue is.

 

Maybe he gets The Open, but if not he'll be entering 9 years without a major.  That is just hard to grasp.  I mean, that's "ho-hum why are we even talking about this player" territory.

[shoot4par]

On 5/9/2022 at 9:12 AM, bladehunter said:

I agree.  And I kind of relate to that thinking.  But I wished I understood more about how to work around better. 
 

for instance I watched rory try to hit a pw 147 plus 7 yards uphill in 55 degree weather with a false front and a pin perched on the edge of that ridge.  Of course it was easy to predict the ball coming up a yard  short and spinning back off.    Why oh why couldn’t you just hit the soft 9 ????   And I say that knowing that I’m prone to the same.  In the moment I’ll hit what I see.  And seconds later , I’ll see the other play , and want to slap myself.  But I have an excuse. I don’t have a caddie. Rory Should have a caddy that’s willing to snap a club if it keeps him from hitting the stupid shot. He doesn’t have that.  Wish he did. 

 

For a while there, he had issues pulling the short irons and wedges. Maybe he has issues with those clubs and he's not comfortable with a sawed off 9 v. just the full swing pw. He has been striking everything really good minus the last two days. That guy's golf iq is about 100 points higher than mine and it'd be difficult to imagine how he thinks his way around a course. 

Edited June 20, 2022 by shoot4par

[GolfTurkey]

In addition to short-siding himself too often, it seems that when he has a shot into the wind he will usually opt for trying to nuke his usual club for that yardage in an effort to get it there.

 

Not suggesting that he plays shots like JT where he sometimes feathers something 3 or even 4 clubs less than stock, just take one more club and hit it smooth for goodness sake. Junior golfers learn this quickly, I'm baffled how he still makes these basic mistakes. It's a testimony to his ridiculous talent that he can fritter away so many strokes via his decision making and still accomplish so much.

Edited June 20, 2022 by GolfTurkey