Help with strategy on this par 3

[mc2]

This Par 3 at my home course gives me a lot of trouble. 

From the regular tee box I'm hitting 5 iron (to adequately cover the green with front-back dispersion). 

 

The green is 30 yards long, and 16 yards wide in the middle.

 

My 5 iron dispersion is approx 45 yards (best guess based on Shot Scope dispersion).

A good shot for me is a slight draw, my misses are over-draw and pull shots, which result in water hazard here. 

If I go long to carry the front bunker, I can easily end up in the rear bunker or bad rough to the right, or if I really flush one while aimed to the right it's actually OOB behind the cart path at the back and I've been there. The rear bunker isn't a bad location when it's a front pin, but doesn't work for the other pins. 

At first glance, the rough on the right is the logical place to aim, but it's this grainy bermuda rough over there and I'm then chipping to a fairly severe sloped green towards the water. A great chip will usually finish on the left edge of the green. A slightly bad chip here and I'm in the water hazard. 

I've tried laying up with some success, but at that distance it's about an 8 iron layup and I can actually still fairly easily pull those into the water (and have!).

The front bunker is maybe an ok option for the back pin location, but is usually too close to the other pins, plus it's a fairly deep face bunker and you're still hitting to a downslope towards water. 

 

The downwind helps as I can switch to 6 or 7 iron which have much better dispersion, but even then I can still tug it into the water. 

The hurting/cross wind is really bad for me obviously with that left miss. 

 

I'm a 12 handicap and this hole is index 4 on my course so always got a stroke to play with, but I want to aim to eliminate double bogeys here, happy with a 4, but hoping to get a look in at a 3 every now and then. 

 

What do you think is the best strategy/place to aim?

 

I'm looking for a solution that will net me the lowest average scores over a long period. 

Really interested to hear how other people would play this hole. 

If this stuff is boring for you, move on please. This one is for the strategy nerds 😜

[mikpga]

14 minutes ago, mc2 said:

This Par 3 at my home course gives me a lot of trouble. 

From the regular tee box I'm hitting 5 iron (to adequately cover the green with front-back dispersion). 

 

The green is 30 yards long, and 16 yards wide in the middle.

 

My 5 iron dispersion is approx 45 yards (best guess based on Shot Scope dispersion).

A good shot for me is a slight draw, my misses are over-draw and pull shots, which result in water hazard here. 

If I go long to carry the front bunker, I can easily end up in the rear bunker or bad rough to the right, or if I really flush one while aimed to the right it's actually OOB behind the cart path at the back and I've been there. The rear bunker isn't a bad location when it's a front pin, but doesn't work for the other pins. 

At first glance, the rough on the right is the logical place to aim, but it's this grainy bermuda rough over there and I'm then chipping to a fairly severe sloped green towards the water. A great chip will usually finish on the left edge of the green. A slightly bad chip here and I'm in the water hazard. 

I've tried laying up with some success, but at that distance it's about an 8 iron layup and I can actually still fairly easily pull those into the water (and have!).

The front bunker is maybe an ok option for the back pin location, but is usually too close to the other pins, plus it's a fairly deep face bunker and you're still hitting to a downslope towards water. 

 

The downwind helps as I can switch to 6 or 7 iron which have much better dispersion, but even then I can still tug it into the water. 

The hurting/cross wind is really bad for me obviously with that left miss. 

 

I'm a 12 handicap and this hole is index 4 on my course so always got a stroke to play with, but I want to aim to eliminate double bogeys here, happy with a 4, but hoping to get a look in at a 3 every now and then. 

 

What do you think is the best strategy/place to aim?

 

I'm looking for a solution that will net me the lowest average scores over a long period. 

Really interested to hear how other people would play this hole. 

If this stuff is boring for you, move on please. This one is for the strategy nerds 😜

I’d always play for the center # with a directional miss that never goes left of center.  Miss will always be right.  Develop skill to chip from such rough more effectively.

[iacas]

I'd be aiming just left of the bright green region, and about as deep as the middle of that.

 

Par threes are hard.

[umamimami]

Do you have a hybrid or wood you could hit a low shot with? Low cut shot? Aiming somewhere between back flag and bunker, there seems to be a convenient tree.

 

Seems to me the deep front bunker is placed to challenge the low shot. If you’re not confident with the carry I’d take the medicine of being in a bunker over the water or a downhill chip out of the rough.

 

[TheDominator273]

With all the trouble left you have to take it out of play as much as possible. Paired with the predominant wind direction as well as the green slope I'd definitely be shifting My aiim as far right as needed to center the dispersion between the center and right edge of the green.

 

You have to accept that bogey will be in play by missing right, but you minimize the chances at double or worse by hitting it in the hazard.

[Sean124]

My first instinct is to hit it this far while aiming at the X 

 

[llewol007]

I would place my ball about a foot in and back of the left tee box marker. That in itself will get me to block out the whole left side. Then I would aim taking your shot into consideration right in between the right edge of the far bunker and the left side of the front bunker. 

[st1800e]

It’s a par 4 for you. Aim to where others have said, you can make a 4, or possible 3.  
At your handicap some holes are pars, on some holes par for you is a bogey, 
Take 5 out of the equation.  

Edited December 6, 2023 by st1800e

[mc2]

4 hours ago, umamimami said:

Do you have a hybrid or wood you could hit a low shot with? Low cut shot? Aiming somewhere between back flag and bunker, there seems to be a convenient tree.

 

Seems to me the deep front bunker is placed to challenge the low shot. If you’re not confident with the carry I’d take the medicine of being in a bunker over the water or a downhill chip out of the rough.

 

That front bunker is still downhill towards the water (the green also slopes down towards the back), and I'm not a good bunker player.

 

Also I tried to hit a cut a few times here and literally ended up hitting the practice green on the other side of the water. I'm a single shot shape player that is for sure 

[mc2]

3 hours ago, Sean124 said:

My first instinct is to hit it this far while aiming at the X 

 

When I sometimes play the shorter tees, this is my strategy as I'm hitting with a 9 iron usually. But from the back tee it's 5 iron and my dispersion is simply far too wide and left-biased for this aim. 

[mc2]

3 hours ago, TheDominator273 said:

With all the trouble left you have to take it out of play as much as possible. Paired with the predominant wind direction as well as the green slope I'd definitely be shifting My aiim as far right as needed to center the dispersion between the center and right edge of the green.

 

You have to accept that bogey will be in play by missing right, but you minimize the chances at double or worse by hitting it in the hazard.

 

Yep I think this is plan. Just have to shift the dispersion cone far enough right that even my worst pull draw is still going to be ok. I'll be in that right rough mostly and need to improve chipping to make sure I can get back on the green in one shot every time in decent 2 putt range

[SNIPERBBB]

Sounds like you're better off risking the water with your tee shot. As long as you don't snap hook or cold top it into the pond. If you put it into the pond somewhere close to the green, you've got an uphill chip  one putt it and you make bogey.

 

 

 

If you're the worried about chipping into the pond when you miss right, do NOT chip towards the pond. Chip away from the hole and let the slope take the ball towards the hole. Worst case is leaving the ball in the fringe/rough where you should be able to get up and down for bogey from there. 

[SNIPERBBB]

And forget about dispersion. Worry about most likely shots. 

[naval2006]

That's the kind of par three you will profit from if you hit short of the green, up in two and sure bogey or sometimes par.  Planning a bogey is  not mentally easy but it definitely adjusts to your hdc and the hole difficulty.  

 

 

[ShortGolfer]

Learn a soft lob shot from the rough that just reaches the green and trickles down.  Hit to the right edge of the green.

Edited December 6, 2023 by ShortGolfer

[getitdaily]

I'm hitting a hold-off cut at the right edge of the green and let the dominant wind do what it wants.

 

I'm playing for center green distance always...NEVER EVER hit a club that gets into that back bunker.

 

Reminds me of a par 3 I play every now and then...just a bear of a par 3 when the wind is in.

 

 

[BombinJim]

I’d go right at the back trap or slightly right of it.

[Boricua Golf]

You know you have two club lengths from the tee marker (back), so perhaps a longer club (wood or hybrid) could work, you can always play it short (front of the green or just off) and chip up to the flag, then take your chances with the putter, either way, play it to your strength, even if it means not hitting the green, at a 10 hcp you should be able to get it close enough to possibly make the putt...good luck, golf is not easy...

[Binson]

 

The X would be my chosen target based on my typical dispersion (shotgun pattern) in the black oval, and if it's a really bad swing, in the yellow oval. 

 

From a strokes-gained course management perspective, use the shot shape that you can deliver most consistently.  Select a start line that will allow you to target the X for where the ball stops.  Your natural dispersion will take care of the rest.  What matters is you've chosen a position that will give you a good result most of the time based on your dispersion pattern.  

 

The line of thinking for the placement is:

1. Avoid Water left
2. Avoid Deep Bunker short
3. Shallow Bunker and Right rough are lesser evils than #1 and 2.  

 

I'll take my medicine if I land it into #3.  Hopefully I'm not short-sided based on the pin location that day.  But, I'll have done what I can to manage the course.

Edited December 6, 2023 by Binson

[umamimami]

This hole suits a right handed fade shot. Especially with the slopes. I’m not asking you to hit a fade but I do think a straight ball flight is the goal here. 
 

So what about a push? Can you do that?

 

 
 

[DaveGoodrich]

My target would be the right edge of the green, using a club that goes just short of the rear bunker if flushed.  

[Pepperturbo]

IMO asking everyone how to play that hole can be baffling.   You view it as problematic; I don't as much, due to my game being different.  What I know is a 12 handi needs to work on spin control and directional control.  Work on those and that hole won't be nearly as difficult. 

 

The easiest option would be to play the ball to the front edge/apron, and chip to the pin.  The other options depend on wind.  Either hit the ball straight over the front bunker, and let the wind push it left, or play a slight fade into breeze, for middle-right.  I spin the ball plenty, so it would likey stay on the green, but worst case, my bailout would be right; end up on the right edge or close by rough, then rely on my chipping to get close for one putt.

Edited December 6, 2023 by Pepperturbo

[Jayjay_theweim_guy]

14 hours ago, mc2 said:

When I sometimes play the shorter tees, this is my strategy as I'm hitting with a 9 iron usually. But from the back tee it's 5 iron and my dispersion is simply far too wide and left-biased for this aim. 

Then put your aim on the "g" in rough in your diagram.  Straight ball is in cabbage, but it's not wet, draw is somewhere on fringe or green. 

 

You're going to dunk or OB 1 occasionally.  It happens.  Do the best you can otherwise.  Still saving more strokes than laying up, IMHO.