Golf Boom: Destination Golf Price Explosion

[CMCSGolf]

3 hours ago, StudentGolfer4 said:

You very well may be right. I think I’m more on board with you when it comes to a slow down in equipment and the building of new resorts than the other stuff though.
 

Just curious, are there any elite country clubs that have closed during the past couple of recessions? Or the past 50 years for that matter. I know the list is fluid but I simply don’t see how places on the level of Camargo, Milwaukee CC, Oakland Hills, Merion, Muirfield, Crooked Stick, etc will actually be affected by a recession. And those are just some of the top midwestern clubs. Imagine how bad it would be before old money places like NGL, Peachtree and The Country Club would feel effects. (I know resorts change hands but that’s not quite what we are talking about here.)
 

I agree more with the thinking of @srs06d

 

Those blueblood clubs won't close, but Ballyneal would do anything to get a member in 09.  They had $0 initiation I believe and now it'a consensus top 100 course in the world. So some very good courses can really suffer.

[srs06d]

4 hours ago, Par4Nate said:

because of the creep of MMT into our monetary policy and the potential for politicization of the Fed, the next recession may be artificially delayed

As if this hasn’t been our last 4 years? Artificially delayed? Or artificially hidden as it has been?

 

I think everyone can agree that the Joe Schmoes of the world will cut back on golf expenditures during a downturn in the economy. But to think that a recession is going to impact private clubs or return resort golf to pre-Covid prices and crowds is wishful thinking. As long as the wealthy are wealthy and credit cards exist, the current scene will be here to stay. Sometimes the eye test is all you need.

[StoutKing]

7 hours ago, CMCSGolf said:

 

Those blueblood clubs won't close, but Ballyneal would do anything to get a member in 09.  They had $0 initiation I believe and now it'a consensus top 100 course in the world. So some very good courses can really suffer.

They were top 100 around 2014 and begging me to join.  Awesome club but national memberships just don't make sense for me.

[StoutKing]

11 hours ago, srs06d said:

Well I'd have to disagree. With the ever increasing wealth gap and the amount of wealth amassed in the past 15 years by golf's demographic, the upper middle to upper class, it would take a near great depression to slow down the resorts and private clubs. Sure, small town golf and municipal golf may suffer but the demand for high end golf is too high. A majority of Americans would say we have been in a recession at one point or another over the past 5 years and that didn't slow anything down. IMO the number of Americans that can easily afford $5k+ golf trips and $100k plus initiation fees is highly underestimated. 

I think that's true until spending that kind of money on golf is no longer seen as a wise investment.  The people who really have a lot of money are the boomers, and they are slowing phasing out.  Not saying top 20 clubs will have a hard time staying afloat in a slow down by I had multiple top 100 privates begging me to join less than a decade ago.  I believe it will happen again when the economy falters.

[Drwoods2017]

We don't even have to go that far back for evidence of how golf resorts used to need golfers. Pre covid Kiawah had packages and deals in the off season designed to draw people in because it wasn't always fully booked. With the golf or gourmet package you could stay at the Sanctuary, play the ocean course, and have a meal at the ocean room for 300 dollars a night. As soon as the golf boom started all the real good value deals were as good as gone. So it's not like it can't go right back to where it was 5 years ago. 

[ND2005]

10 minutes ago, Drwoods2017 said:

We don't even have to go that far back for evidence of how golf resorts used to need golfers. Pre covid Kiawah had packages and deals in the off season designed to draw people in because it wasn't always fully booked. With the golf or gourmet package you could stay at the Sanctuary, play the ocean course, and have a meal at the ocean room for 300 dollars a night. As soon as the golf boom started all the real good value deals were as good as gone. So it's not like it can't go right back to where it was 5 years ago. 

 

I got a "free" Scotty Cameron from Streamsong back in the day for booking! 

[Warrior42111]

A lot of factors to consider on this topic. First, on a downturn who has money, the answer is boomers as mentioned before. So, most of the 'available' money is there. Now throw in the fact that millennials just surpassed them in population (boomers dying). The question is a) where is that money transfer going, and b) what are the priorities of the other generations?

 

I can only speak for myself as a millennial, but I think I and IMO we're are more family oriented that prior generations, not a dig or anything. But we see many more households where both parents are actively involved in the household and not just the breadwinner and less time to play or hang around the club. So, I see less of a percentage golfing vs boomers at that snapshot of ages.

 

Last thought I have is it will be really course-ownership dependent. I think non corporate owned courses will have a better chance at staying around. They can attempt to reduce profit margins in a hope to come back after the storm. The corporate owned courses are going to struggle since they have to answer to the shareholders who want maximum money at all times. Could lead to pressure to sell to developers, or other measures off-putting to a golfer but designed to get them money before jumping out.

[srs06d]

5 minutes ago, Warrior42111 said:

I can only speak for myself as a millennial, but I think I and IMO we're are more family oriented that prior generations, not a dig or anything. But we see many more households where both parents are actively involved in the household and not just the breadwinner and less time to play or hang around the club. So, I see less of a percentage golfing vs boomers at that snapshot of ages.

I'm also a millennial and this may be geographic dependent, but every millennials' goal in my area is to get their name on wait lists and find a club to spend time at with their family. To the point that social clubs without golf are on multi year waitlists. All while initiation fees are increasing year over year. And to the point of family time, it is easier to escape for a golf trip for a few days (regardless of the cost is seems) once a year than it is to take time away from the family every weekend. 

 

And to the point of wealth transfer, it has to go somewhere. So you're going to have generations already with high salary expectations (Gen Z expects $567k a year to be considered "successful") flushed with excess cash. Why not blow this on an initiation fees or a $5k+ golf trip. They are also having less children lowering that expense that has faced prior generations. I don't think anyone is debating that the golf industry for the layman is susceptible to economic downturns, but it going to take much more of an effort than in years past to truly impact the high end golf scene. 

[ND2005]

10 minutes ago, srs06d said:

I'm also a millennial and this may be geographic dependent, but every millennials' goal in my area is to get their name on wait lists and find a club to spend time at with their family. To the point that social clubs without golf are on multi year waitlists. All while initiation fees are increasing year over year. And to the point of family time, it is easier to escape for a golf trip for a few days (regardless of the cost is seems) once a year than it is to take time away from the family every weekend. 

 

And to the point of wealth transfer, it has to go somewhere. So you're going to have generations already with high salary expectations (Gen Z expects $567k a year to be considered "successful") flushed with excess cash. Why not blow this on an initiation fees or a $5k+ golf trip. They are also having less children lowering that expense that has faced prior generations. I don't think anyone is debating that the golf industry for the layman is susceptible to economic downturns, but it going to take much more of an effort than in years past to truly impact the high end golf scene. 

Also a millennial and while it’s obviously anecdotal, it sure seems like our generation is WAY more into golf travel than previous ones. Every single golfer I know has a group and a yearly trip (at least). Tons of folks picking up national memberships to have a place to go. 
 
I don’t see the travel golf boom going anywhere for a long time. 

[ChaosTheory]

21 hours ago, srs06d said:

Well I'd have to disagree. With the ever increasing wealth gap and the amount of wealth amassed in the past 15 years by golf's demographic, the upper middle to upper class, it would take a near great depression to slow down the resorts and private clubs. Sure, small town golf and municipal golf may suffer but the demand for high end golf is too high. A majority of Americans would say we have been in a recession at one point or another over the past 5 years and that didn't slow anything down. IMO the number of Americans that can easily afford $5k+ golf trips and $100k plus initiation fees is highly underestimated. 

You might be surprised at how many well off looking people are fairly heavily indebted. Clumsy sentence but you get it. 
 

I know the stats show wealth, but if stocks crash, and layoffs happen, indebted people will have to trim the fat. It happens every time. 

[TheKitchenSink]

Golf is inherently a boom/bust industry.

 

That is because golf has essentially no ability to match supply to demand. If demand booms (like the past 5 years) it takes years for the industry to increase supply and build new courses. If demand falls (like it will during the next economic downturn) they can't just cut production or lay off a meaningful number of employees. Courses have high fixed costs. 

 

Once enough courses have closed supply/demand will be back in balance. Until, of course, the next boom. At which point demand will out-race supply and round and round the merry go round. 

 

[vandyfan]

Pursell Farms is a good example. Prior to their lean into the influencers, you could play out there for $60 in high season (think 2020-2021). Now fast forward to 2024-2025, no additional course and no real changes....$260 for the same golf course. That is like Venezuelan inflation there. 

 

The golf resorts can charge whatever they want right now. I have been trying to book Sand Valley for the past two years and I can't get on there with a group. Meanwhile (WARNING I AM LASHING OUT BECAUSE OF JEALOUSY) I know like 5-6 20+ HDCPs that have been out there in the past year. Like guys that can barely play out there jamming up the resort. Makes me crazy. 

[jda]

Going to Los Cabos in April for a week.  This trip is cheaper than any one in the last decade and they included all transportation and food.  All good courses.

 

Clubs and long-book destinations will always lag, but the rest of the golf world is changing.

[Par4Nate]

I know I’m just an old man (59) yelling at clouds, but this is the fourth time in my adult life where I’ve heard the ‘but this time is different’ argument from folks younger than me.  And the three prior times it didn’t work out so well.  Who knows, maybe this time is different.

[srs06d]

59 is hardly old enough to be the old man yellow at kids to get off his lawn! I may be jaded coming from an area that has people (young and old) throwing $20k around to join non-golfing social clubs and $50k+ to join golf clubs with 5+ year wait lists. There is no debate that the golf industry is susceptible to economic downturns. But I just can't see high end resort golf and clubs returning to pre-covid levels. Sure, maybe one day you'll be able to book Bandon without a year and half out lottery. But will the rates decrease to a level that reflects this pending disastrous recession? Doubtful.

 

Honestly hope to be proven wrong. I'd welcome a recession to bring some sanity back to prices but don't think the powers that be will even allow one to happen.

[TheKitchenSink]

9 minutes ago, srs06d said:

59 is hardly old enough to be the old man yellow at kids to get off his lawn! I may be jaded coming from an area that has people (young and old) throwing $20k around to join non-golfing social clubs and $50k+ to join golf clubs with 5+ year wait lists. There is no debate that the golf industry is susceptible to economic downturns. But I just can't see high end resort golf and clubs returning to pre-covid levels. Sure, maybe one day you'll be able to book Bandon without a year and half out lottery. But will the rates decrease to a level that reflects this pending disastrous recession? Doubtful.

 

Honestly hope to be proven wrong. I'd welcome a recession to bring some sanity back to prices but don't think the powers that be will even allow one to happen.

I think it'd be more enjoyable to just hope for more courses to be built. 

[Schley]

I'm very excited with the current large resorts getting bigger, as it mitigates the risk for them to add a course to an existing resort then for someone to build one from scratch.  Shared services is great on spreadsheets and pencils out quite well. 

 

Pinehurst adding #10

Sand Valley with Sedge/Lido

Bandon adding a 7th course

 

This is great news for golfers and with demand there should keep expanding.

[Dancin]

On 2/6/2025 at 2:38 PM, CMCSGolf said:

 

Those blueblood clubs won't close, but Ballyneal would do anything to get a member in 09.  They had $0 initiation I believe and now it'a consensus top 100 course in the world. So some very good courses can really suffer.

Ballyneal was a special situation (although very common for a new course). It had an over leveraged first time owner who was trying a business model (high end/expensive because that was the only way he could make the payments on the loans) that would never work for a course in the middle of nowhere at that point in time. I suspect if it had started now he would have had a much better chance at making that ultra exclusive model work. But he didn't even get half the membership filled and the course went through foreclosure. The person who loaned the original owner the money turned it around rather quickly after taking over. He understood that it is more a hotel than a golf club and filling the rooms with guests is how it becomes profitable. Thus he dropped the initiation to nothing as filling out the membership and getting more people on site was the key to making his investment eventually pay off.

 

Dismal River was another one that went through at least two failures and 3 or more owners before it finally succeeded. Unfortunately they did lose their greens a year or two ago, but they had been firing on all cylinders before that happened.

[StoutKing]

1 hour ago, Dancin said:

Ballyneal was a special situation (although very common for a new course). It had an over leveraged first time owner who was trying a business model (high end/expensive because that was the only way he could make the payments on the loans) that would never work for a course in the middle of nowhere at that point in time. I suspect if it had started now he would have had a much better chance at making that ultra exclusive model work. But he didn't even get half the membership filled and the course went through foreclosure. The person who loaned the original owner the money turned it around rather quickly after taking over. He understood that it is more a hotel than a golf club and filling the rooms with guests is how it becomes profitable. Thus he dropped the initiation to nothing as filling out the membership and getting more people on site was the key to making his investment eventually pay off.

 

Dismal River was another one that went through at least two failures and 3 or more owners before it finally succeeded. Unfortunately they did lose their greens a year or two ago, but they had been firing on all cylinders before that happened.

I had 5+ top 100 privates offer me membership before COVID.  Will it happen again?  Who knows but it certainly feels like we are at a high right now.  An economic blip will change things.

[act0fgod]

On 2/6/2025 at 8:58 PM, StudentGolfer4 said:

You very well may be right. I think I’m more on board with you when it comes to a slow down in equipment and the building of new resorts than the other stuff though.
 

Just curious, are there any elite country clubs that have closed during the past couple of recessions? Or the past 50 years for that matter. I know the list is fluid but I simply don’t see how places on the level of Camargo, Milwaukee CC, Oakland Hills, Merion, Muirfield, Crooked Stick, etc will actually be affected by a recession. And those are just some of the top midwestern clubs. Imagine how bad it would be before old money places like NGL, Peachtree and The Country Club would feel effects. (I know resorts change hands but that’s not quite what we are talking about here.)
 

I agree more with the thinking of @srs06d

Like others have said the places you listed won't close, but they do feel the effects.  I was a member at a club in Ohio that has hosted majors.  I was able to join with no sponsor, waived initiation and young adult membership fees in 2016.  I unfortunately moved and dropped the membership.  No chance someone that was in my position then gets in now...doubt I could get back in now if I'm being honest

 

Also during the next recession look to see how many of these new clubs in the Carolina/Georgia sand belt region fail or go public.  Leveraged positions are great when times are good and money is flowing but easy to quickly bleed out when things slow.

 

A place like Dormie Club is similar to those clubs and has felt the ups and downs.  I walked up to their trailer, paid $50 and went out on an empty course a few years after it opened.  Victoria National is another highly regarded course I remember being talked about as in financial trouble at times (coincidentally also now a part of Dormie Network).

[LongNwrong27]

On 2/7/2025 at 6:41 PM, Par4Nate said:

I know I’m just an old man (59) yelling at clouds, but this is the fourth time in my adult life where I’ve heard the ‘but this time is different’ argument from folks younger than me.  And the three prior times it didn’t work out so well.  Who knows, maybe this time is different.

It’s probably not different in that yes there are always cycles and undoubtedly some resort courses will go bust or struggle, however it just probably won’t be some cataclysmic implosion where you can play pebble beach for 150 bucks or etc unless we’re in true economic depression land and have far far bigger concerns than golf course affordability/access . 

 

social media has also contributed to all of these places being more popular where vast majorities of serious golfers are now aware of them, whereas the concept of traveling across country or ocean for a golf trip was probably a more foreign concept 10-15 years ago and more of a niche thing than it is today.

market will bear what the market will bear. Not sure some of these newer set ups such as Cabot citrus make sense financially for basically anyone at full rack rate with lodging but we will see how they do I guess. 

[TheKitchenSink]

Read an article on Golf.com that made me think of this thread. Forest Dunes adding a 4th course: https://golf.com/travel/forest-dunes-skyfall-gil-hanse-jim-wagner-michigan/

 

MORE. 

[jjthomp2]

On 2/9/2025 at 2:54 AM, act0fgod said:

Like others have said the places you listed won't close, but they do feel the effects.  I was a member at a club in Ohio that has hosted majors.  I was able to join with no sponsor, waived initiation and young adult membership fees in 2016.  I unfortunately moved and dropped the membership.  No chance someone that was in my position then gets in now...doubt I could get back in now if I'm being honest

 

Also during the next recession look to see how many of these new clubs in the Carolina/Georgia sand belt region fail or go public.  Leveraged positions are great when times are good and money is flowing but easy to quickly bleed out when things slow.

 

A place like Dormie Club is similar to those clubs and has felt the ups and downs.  I walked up to their trailer, paid $50 and went out on an empty course a few years after it opened.  Victoria National is another highly regarded course I remember being talked about as in financial trouble at times (coincidentally also now a part of Dormie Network).

I have many fond memories of Dormie Club pre-acquisition. Really bummed me out when it got gobbled up by the dormie network. 

[Phreddy]

The OP was about the degree of price hikes hitting golf in general and destination courses in particular.  Yes there has been inflation, but the primary pricing driver has been demand.  Given that demand, course ownership has plowed some of that excess cash flow into expansion where they need to generate an ROIC (return on invested capital) for it to make economic sense, or to cover the interest expense if they used leverage.  Hence the cycle in a boom and bust industry like golf.  I thought the following quotes from Bruce Hepner, a golf course architect who worked with Tom Doak before branching out on his own were germane.  They were published in today's edition of The Fried Egg.

 

“When it’s post-2010,” he explains, “when the stock market starts climbing and golf gets popular, anybody who got in on the stock market is making a lot of money. And there are a lot of new members [at golf clubs].... They’re new to the game, and COVID brings another 10 to 20 percent of people who’ve never played golf before and are flush with cash. So now there are clubs that have no problem dropping $15 million.

 

Still, Hepner wonders if today’s big spenders are prepared for an uncertain future. “It’s scary because I think a lot of people, new club members, have never felt any financial hurt,” he says. “They got into the game after 2010. They’ve seen the stock market just rise. I’ve been through—I don’t know how many recessions. I remember standing in line to get gas back in the 70s…. Maybe we’re not going to have a hiccup. But if history repeats itself, we’re going to have some kind of correction. And some clubs are going to be in a lot of trouble, a lot of hurt.”

 

 

[mallrat]

On 2/7/2025 at 6:08 AM, ND2005 said:

Also a millennial and while it’s obviously anecdotal, it sure seems like our generation is WAY more into golf travel than previous ones. Every single golfer I know has a group and a yearly trip (at least). Tons of folks picking up national memberships to have a place to go. 
 
I don’t see the travel golf boom going anywhere for a long time. 

Curious, and in no judgement, how many of them have families? 
 

I’m a Gen X’er and maybe we are just focused more on retirement but our trips have become much fewer and far between. 

[ND2005]

22 minutes ago, mallrat said:

Curious, and in no judgement, how many of them have families? 
 

I’m a Gen X’er and maybe we are just focused more on retirement but our trips have become much fewer and far between. 

All but one. 
 

[mshills]

On 2/7/2025 at 8:35 AM, ND2005 said:

 

I got a "free" Scotty Cameron from Streamsong back in the day for booking! 

How long did you have to wait for it?

 

😂🤣😂 Sorry. Lol. 

[ND2005]

13 minutes ago, mshills said:

How long did you have to wait for it?

 

😂🤣😂 Sorry. Lol. 

pretty sure I’m still waiting on the beer I ordered during my last trip 

[PedronNiall]

On 2/7/2025 at 8:41 AM, Warrior42111 said:

A lot of factors to consider on this topic. First, on a downturn who has money, the answer is boomers as mentioned before. So, most of the 'available' money is there. Now throw in the fact that millennials just surpassed them in population (boomers dying). The question is a) where is that money transfer going, and b) what are the priorities of the other generations?

 

I can only speak for myself as a millennial, but I think I and IMO we're are more family oriented that prior generations, not a dig or anything. But we see many more households where both parents are actively involved in the household and not just the breadwinner and less time to play or hang around the club. So, I see less of a percentage golfing vs boomers at that snapshot of ages.

 

Last thought I have is it will be really course-ownership dependent. I think non corporate owned courses will have a better chance at staying around. They can attempt to reduce profit margins in a hope to come back after the storm. The corporate owned courses are going to struggle since they have to answer to the shareholders who want maximum money at all times. Could lead to pressure to sell to developers, or other measures off-putting to a golfer but designed to get them money before jumping out.

 

It's almost a non-question as to what will happen with corporate sites. They were bought into because number crunchers/algos told them to buy, prices and fees adjust based on what models tell them is optimal--surge pricing is active for many of them just like it is for Uber and Lyft--and they'll flip the asset when other models tell them it's time. Same tends can be seen in the funds and such that bought up residential real estate to rent out and, in some cases, are now dumping it en masse because it's served its purpose. 

 

In rare cases you might see some individuals who retained enough of a stake to have a say, but if actual faceless entities are running things then the data will dictate the outcome, not a love for the game. 

[cer5059]

On 2/6/2025 at 8:44 AM, Drwoods2017 said:

As long as people keep paying the prices they aren't going down. Tobacco road is an interesting case study because as others have said they haven't added anything new or exciting. They also really don't have any active lodging on site. So it's not like the overhead is increasing either. They just sit back and take everyone's cash and pocket it. It used to be the coolest place with some awesome events. They had 3 days tournaments, cross country hole events, captain choice tourneys, really cool night time golf stuff. Now its like its lost all its soul. They do so many rounds a year that shutting the course down for interesting things isn't an option because they want to make as much money as possible. If Stranz was still alive I think he'd be pretty upset with what it's become.

Never did it, but really wanted to, the Home on the Range event looked really awesome. I remember seeing it the first two years and it was like $400 for two or three nights of camping out at TR, golf Friday night, all day Saturday, and a round Sunday morning before leaving, and night golf events. I think it went away for a year or two and I think came back for one more year and it was like $800.