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2nd shot strategy on Par 5 you can’t reach


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7 minutes ago, Cliffy2020 said:

Sorry for the confusion.  With respect to “The Rule” - I’d add “….. you must safely and RELIABLY remove as much distance as possible…”

 

Because of this, Strokes Gained statistics do NOT apply to mid handicap golfers but the lessons of Strokes Gained do.

 

Tour Pros down to low single index players hit all clubs reliably well and should follow “The Rule”. I agree, that’s the easy case.

 

Mid handicap golfers and higher have much less reliability and the caveat to “The Rule” becomes much more individualized based on that players skill set.

 

I didn’t mean for anybody to get hung up on the club choice I picked in my example.  The point was to illustrate the execution rate.  
 

For mid handicap players as they move up the bag, dispersion (both horizontal and vertical) goes up exponentially.  We see this every day on the lesson tee.  Another distinguishing shot that separates mid handicaps from better players is partial wedges.  
 

Making a conscious effort to execute 3W off the deck and then pull off  a partial wedge versus (fill in the blank two shot combination) for mid handicap players brings in more big numbers than little ones.  Keep in mind, birdie is best score in either scenario and still unlikely.  
 

It’s not anecdotal, it’s simple math.

Disagree. Even the arccos data which includes many mid handicaps data still shows closer is better. I believe Lou Stagner has looked at this for non pros as well

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15 minutes ago, Cliffy2020 said:

Sorry for the confusion.  With respect to “The Rule” - I’d add “….. you must safely and RELIABLY remove as much distance as possible…”

 

Because of this, Strokes Gained statistics do NOT apply to mid handicap golfers but the lessons of Strokes Gained do.

 

Tour Pros down to low single index players hit all clubs reliably well and should follow “The Rule”. I agree, that’s the easy case.

 

Mid handicap golfers and higher have much less reliability and the caveat to “The Rule” becomes much more individualized based on that players skill set.

 

I didn’t mean for anybody to get hung up on the club choice I picked in my example.  The point was to illustrate the execution rate.  
 

For mid handicap players as they move up the bag, dispersion (both horizontal and vertical) goes up exponentially.  We see this every day on the lesson tee.  Another distinguishing shot that separates mid handicaps from better players is partial wedges.  
 

Making a conscious effort to execute 3W off the deck and then pull off  a partial wedge versus (fill in the blank two shot combination) for mid handicap players brings in more big numbers than little ones.  Keep in mind, birdie is best score in either scenario and still unlikely.  
 

It’s not anecdotal, it’s simple math.

Ok so again don’t hit 3W. Hit 5W or 4i. That doesn’t mean a 7i makes sense 

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2 minutes ago, iacas said:

 

No. There are plenty of times I've made birdie by thinning a hybrid second shot on a par five… and then hitting the wedge to the green and making the putt.

 

Nobody's suggesting that if 50% of the time you slice your 3W into the trees, that you hit your 3W. But hitting a hybrid, or something else… is often better. For all levels of player.

 

 

That's not true. I mean, I have access to millions of shots, and Lou Stagner has access to more, and… so that's what I'm using to say "that's not true."

 

 

The Rule applies to everyone. The worse the player, the more likely they are to mess up the 7I or the PW, too. It's not like there are a bunch of magical mid-handicappers who can't hit a hybrid but who hit every 7I and every PW reliably.

 

 

No, mid handicappers are still more likely to get their partial wedges closer to the hole than they are their full shots (regardless of where they're aiming — which is the main point of the charts, but it shows what I'm saying here too):

 

19.jpg.d6894b2f7dd8884b66336a053bc12831.jpg1018.jpg.fcdeb2271e2ff71ecf6e8176d4f58723.jpg

 

 

The stats simply don't back that theory.

This is also like the mythical 10 handicap who drives and hits their irons like a  scratch or + but can’t putt 

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5 hours ago, LongNwrong27 said:

Data shows this is the wrong approach for basically all level players. You will undoubtedly hit it closer from 40-50 than 85-110 assuming there are no crazy hazards or OB to prevent you from advancing the ball that far 

 

Yeah, I know my game and I know how close I hit the ball from different yardages.  I’m deadly with a full 60 or 56 in my hand, not so much on the 40 yard pitch, particularly at my club where the greens are almost all elevated and heavily bunkered and there’s less than usual opportunity for bringing the ball in on the ground..  Weakest part of my game has always been my 40-60 yard shots. I’ve been working on it, but still my least confident shot.

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8 minutes ago, WesternRacing said:

 

Yeah, I know my game and I know how close I hit the ball from different yardages.  I’m deadly with a full 60 or 56 in my hand, not so much on the 40 yard pitch, particularly at my club where the greens are almost all elevated and heavily bunkered and there’s less than usual opportunity for bringing the ball in on the ground..  Weakest part of my game has always been my 40-60 yard shots. I’ve been working on it, but still my least confident shot.

 

8 minutes ago, Ty_Webb said:

I think where this misconception comes about is if you're 30 yards away and hit it to 20 feet, that feels like a terrible shot. If you're 100 yards away, 20 feet is a pretty good shot. So people think they're bad at short pitches and good at 100 yard pitches, so they play for the 100 yard shots. The reality is even though they feel like they're better from 100 (and they might be better than their handicap level from 100 and worse than it from 30), the 30 yard shot is still going to wind up closer on average than the 100 yard shot. There may be the odd unicorn out there where the 100 yard shot should wind up on the green and the 30 yard shot  might go 3 yards or might go 60, but they are going to be very few and far between and should really do something about the 30 yarders rather than try to fiddle with the strategy

I’m glad these two responses were back to back.  Ty nailed it.  For example… last season Scheffler was the leader in approaches from 100-125 yards averaging 14’ 9”(wow!) and averaged a bit over 11’ from 50-75 yards.  He’s likely more disappointed with the closer number even though it gives him a much better chance at holing the putt.  

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Lay up to a comfortable full shot wedge.  For amateurs having a partial wedge shot unless it's around the green is a crap shoot due to lack of practice.

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2 minutes ago, Asics10 said:

What's consensus if the pin is in the front and bunkers guard the front? Do you lay back then so you have a fuller shot that can spin? Doesn't need to be a par 5, can be a short par 4.

Play to end up on the front 1/3 of the green, not the pin?  I don't know your game, but a high lofted "chip" from my 56 isn't rolling that much. 

 

Take enough so it will cover X obstacle---I like trying to hit the fringe with the carry, but I practice this one a bit---and if it runs as far as it flies, oh well.  Mine usually won't.  Still better prox than me trying to stick a 3/4, sharp-hit 56 from 85-90, with all the spin.

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1 minute ago, Jayjay_theweim_guy said:

Play to end up on the front 1/3 of the green, not the pin?  I don't know your game, but a high lofted "chip" from my 56 isn't rolling that much. 

 

Take enough so it will cover X obstacle---I like trying to hit the fringe with the carry, but I practice this one a bit---and if it runs as far as it flies, oh well.  Mine usually won't.  Still better prox than me trying to stick a 3/4, sharp-hit 56 from 85-90, with all the spin.

Well said.  Funny how guys think they cannot hit it close enough from 30 yards to “a front pin behind a bunker”  but believe they can be precise with that 100 yard shot and stiff it every time.  As @Ty_Webb noted it’s more likely they are ecstatic when hitting it to 15-20 feet behind the hole  from 100 and disappointed when they hit it to 12’ from 30 yards.

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Just now, Shilgy said:

...As @Ty_Webb noted it’s more likely they are ecstatic when hitting it to 15-20 feet behind the hole  from 100 and disappointed when they hit it to 12’ from 30 yards.

Thanks.  

 

It's funny about that phenomenon.  I think it's due to prox not decreasing at the same slope that distance does.  At least it did the last time I looked at Lou's newsletter charts.  (Which are somewhere in the >10,000 images on my phone...sigh)

I.e., you're three times closer at 33 yds away than you are from 100, but you're often not hitting it 3 times closer to the hole.  Maybe just twice as close?  Still closer though.  It's a shot a lot of people don't practice, for sure. 

 

I am on Team Just-Get-It-On-The-Green at this point.  I like trying to hit the fringe with long chips, often do, and my lag putting is still better than my chipping as measured by proximity.

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37 minutes ago, WesternRacing said:

 

Yeah, I know my game and I know how close I hit the ball from different yardages.  I’m deadly with a full 60 or 56 in my hand, not so much on the 40 yard pitch, particularly at my club where the greens are almost all elevated and heavily bunkered and there’s less than usual opportunity for bringing the ball in on the ground..  Weakest part of my game has always been my 40-60 yard shots. I’ve been working on it, but still my least confident shot.

And yet your 40 yard prox is still probably significantly better than it is from 100

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What I actually do and what I think I should do are very different. I generally try to get to the green unless there's a hazard near the green. I think the best answer would be to give myself a smooth 3/4 wedge shot from a good lie that doesn't require any club face manipulation.

 

The problem for me is that I know that I've had that freak instance where I hit my 225 club 250 yards, so if I'm faced with 240 yards I'll probably get there 1 time out of 10. The other 9 times are opportunities for big numbers.  I'm more likely to come up 25 yards short and end up short-sided with a bunker to carry and lots of bad options for how to play the shot.  I'd rather be on the opposite side of the fairway from 50-75 yards out where I can be a bit more aggressive about my line and play a normal trajectory into the green, but I very rarely make that decision unless I'm definitely in a "can't reach" scenario.

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Posted (edited)
37 minutes ago, Shilgy said:

Well said.  Funny how guys think they cannot hit it close enough from 30 yards to “a front pin behind a bunker”  but believe they can be precise with that 100 yard shot and stiff it every time.  As @Ty_Webb noted it’s more likely they are ecstatic when hitting it to 15-20 feet behind the hole  from 100 and disappointed when they hit it to 12’ from 30 yards.

 

Absolutely this. If you've got a pin that's 5 yards on with a bunker covering, then you realistically ought to be aiming at least like 10 yards past it from 100 yards if you're a mid handicap, maybe 5-7 yards past if you're a low cap. You could probably fly a 30 yard pitch all the way to the flag and in most situations have it stop shorter than the 100 yard aim point.

 

If anything, a situation like that is the sort of situation where you'll get even more benefit from being closer to the hole because your aim point on a full swing is going to need to be very conservative to avoid the trouble.

 

There will be some exceptions in highly unusual situations (30 yarder is off a downslope to a fast, elevated green that slopes away, or whatever), but unless you're playing tour courses they shouldn't come up very often at all. And even in those situations, you want to lay back as little as possible. Maybe to 45 yards, not to 100!

Edited by onehopstopt
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Hit the 3W! If you're not willing to hit that club on the course, you might as well take it out of the bag. 

 

I recently went through a long stretch where I was spraying my 3W all over the place. No idea where it was going to go -- hitting ridiculous, embarrassing shots. But I kept hitting it (and kept practicing).  I wasn't going to give myself an out which forced me to fix my 3W.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Posted (edited)

I have 4 holes on my course (LOL) that fit that descriptions, at least from the tips. The strategy is always the same; put myself in a birdie position by getting within 75 yards for my 3rd shot. The closer the better. These are all holes where anything less than a near perfect drive and good conditions means no getting home in 2.  

 

Hole #3: elevated green, bunkers up front, 530 yards.

 

If within 225 and no wind, I go for it, 3H. Sometimes I cut the corner with favorable wind and am within 190, which is go for it 100/100 times. If wind or I don't hit a great drive I lay up, usually with 8-9 iron and end up 75 yards out. This is my most frequently birdied hole: I averaged 4.7 strokes here last summer. 

 

Hole #8; long (570), usually a headwind. I'll typically be somewhere between 260-290 from the hole; I can't get home without a low % high risk 3-wood. There's a bunker uphill at around 200 from my drive; on the 2nd shot I'll try to carry that unless the wind is really bad in my face: coming up short leaves me a gap wedge to the pin. Getting over the bunker is a better approach from 50 yards. It's a tougher birdie than #3. 

 

Hole #11: uphill 535 yards, typically a headwind. This is another tough hole to get home from if there is any sort of headwind as it's exposed. There is a bunker front left and a deep drainage basin behind the green. You don't want to be in either spot. If I'm not within range of 3H/5W to get home, I try to lay up to target about 50 yards out if it's windy and if not, roll it close enough to chip, but without risking going over or into the left-side bunker. Even being 100 yards out from the right side is a good angle into the green; I get a lot of birdies on this hole. Sunday I put my 5W just short of the fringe and had a high % chip to get a 3-foot birdie putt. 

 

Hole #17: slightly uphill, 530 yards, bunker at 280, often headwinds. This is another almost 100% layup hole. There is a hazard downhill and short-right of the hole. Leave it short uphill (left of the hole) is the layup play. Drive: short or left of the fairway bunker; I'm usually about 270 off the tee with the headwinds and lack of rollout. Hit a 5-iron to the left of the hole, so that it runs down toward the hole; you'll be within 50 yards, maybe less. Then a good pitch and birdie chance (drained a 60 yard wedge for eagle here Sunday). I've gotten home in 2 from the regular 2nd set (mens) white tees, but I only had 185 to the pin, not 235. I have a lot more confidence in not pushing the 7-iron into the hazard vs. the 3W.  

 

Big picture: If I can't confidently get home in 2 without introducing trouble, I lay up to a good spot with an approach that gives me plenty of green to work with. Closer is better in general but on all of these holes, you can get stuck in a bunker or short-sided with a bad lie pretty easily as the greens are kidney-shaped at a 30-45 degree angle from the fairway. The goal is to have a makeable birdie putt and avoid bogey at all costs on par 5s. I don't mind giving away bogey on a 220 yard par 3 but on a wide, open par 5, it's an own-goal.

Edited by RoyalMustang
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3 hours ago, DaveGoodrich said:

As others have said, the data says "closer is better" regardless of handicap level (assuming penalty strokes aren't at play).  Most folks think they are special, most folks aren't. That data applies to everyone. 

 

Essentially nobody hits it closer from 100 than they do from 40, which means you are more likely to miss the green, dump it it a bunker, etc.  And the consequences of a screwed up 100 yarder are generally much worse than the consequences of a screwed up 40 yarder, because you are swinging faster.   The screwed up 40 yarder is more embarrassing though, which is likely the real reason folks avoid those shots, even though they would be closer, on average, from 40 than from 100.   

 

 

 

I'm all about about being closer unless out of position. By this I mean having the right angle of approach to the green: not hitting into a steep downslope, not having to unnecessarily cover a bunker to a short-sided pin when being 20 yards right is a clean pitch right at the green. On each of our par 5s, there is in position and out of position. Bunkers are in play; come in from the right angle and you've got the entire green to work with; not a narrow strip with the pin hiding right behind the bunker you need to cover  

 

To your point: go to a range and try to hit to a flag 40 yards out. It's not tough to get it close. Then do it to 100 yards out: some will end up close but on average, you're further away. It's a different shot, sure, and one you should practice, but nobody who can make a good full swing from 100 should be scared of a 40 yard pitch. 

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It’s hit longest club all day unless it gets you in trouble either through inconsistency or too much length. I have two holes on my main course I utilize this on and reasonably can get birdie chances on it. I usually have to utilize that strategy on the other three par 5s as well due to being put in positions where I cannot reasonably try to go for the green in two. 

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1 hour ago, RoyalMustang said:

I'm all about about being closer unless out of position. By this I mean having the right angle of approach to the green: not hitting into a steep downslope, not having to unnecessarily cover a bunker to a short-sided pin when being 20 yards right is a clean pitch right at the green. On each of our par 5s, there is in position and out of position. Bunkers are in play; come in from the right angle and you've got the entire green to work with; not a narrow strip with the pin hiding right behind the bunker you need to cover  

 

Agree.  If there is nastiness around the green, you basically have to decide when that becomes essentially equivalent to a penalty stroke and then specifically avoid it. But even if you lay back to avoid that trouble, the data says to lay back as little as possible, not to some "preferred yardage."  

 

But if you are close enough, even with crappy lies or bad angles, you will still usually score somewhere between birdie and par, if you don't get greedy once you are in that bad spot.  Get it on the green and try to make a putt.  Assuming basic competence with routine short game shots, it's still probably better "odds" than being 100 out in the fairway.  

 

All that being said, the goal is "closer to the hole," not "farther from here."  So finding a club that you can hit far off the ground, but with reasonable control, is really important for Par 5 scoring, even if you don't reach many 5's in 2.  

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4 hours ago, GoGoErky said:

Disagree. Even the arccos data which includes many mid handicaps data still shows closer is better. I believe Lou Stagner has looked at this for non pros as well

 

4 hours ago, iacas said:

 

No. There are plenty of times I've made birdie by thinning a hybrid second shot on a par five… and then hitting the wedge to the green and making the putt. In other words, sometimes even the mis-hits with a longer club still accidentally lay up to 85 yards. Mis-hitting the 7I, on the other hand, which people arguing your side of things seem to discount often leaves more than a wedge.

 

Nobody's suggesting that if half the time a golfers slices her 3W into the trees, that she hit her 3W. But hitting a hybrid, or something else… is often better. For all levels.

 

 

That's not true. I mean, I have access to millions of shots, and Lou Stagner has access to more, and… so that's what I'm using to say "that's not true."

 

Strokes gained can be applied to any level of player. It's not just a "pro" type thing.

 

 

The Rule applies to everyone, not just good players. Again, the worse the player, the more likely they are to mess up the 7I or the PW, too. It's not like there are a bunch of magical mid-handicappers who can't hit a hybrid but who hit every 7I and every PW "reliably."

 

 

Mid handicappers are still more likely to get their partial wedges closer to the hole than they are their full shots (regardless of where they're aiming — which is the main point of the charts, but it shows what I'm saying here too):

 

19.jpg.d6894b2f7dd8884b66336a053bc12831.jpg1018.jpg.fcdeb2271e2ff71ecf6e8176d4f58723.jpg

 

 

The stats simply don't back that theory.

 

Lou’s #1 for getting better - Improve your ball striking.  The longer the club, the more difficult it is to reliably make center-face contact.  The objective would be to consistently get 70%, 80% or 90% desired distance out of each club (essentially eliminating the catastrophic misses and reliably making good enough contact to produce usable productive golf shots.)  

 

Lou also has data showing 3W is the least used club in the bag among amateurs followed by their longest irons.  Simply because they are more difficult to hit.


Lou often uses an example of three 10 index golfers playing golf together.  Player A) Putts like a 20index.  Player B) Putts like a 10 index and Player C) Putts like a scratch golfer.  Even though they typically shoot the same scores they arrive there much differently due to their ball striking abilities and should manage their individual games accordingly.

 

Lou also has data proving a players dispersion circle is tighter when hitting a stock shot vs. a non stock shot.  Understanding the difference between proximity and dispersion while keeping predictability in mind here.  
 

The Original Poster describes a stellar round blighted by two double bogeys on par 5’s stemming from errant second shots using long clubs in an attempt to get as close to the green as possible.  Should the OP adjust his club selection next time?  Yes.  (and in the meantime, work on his long(er) fairway shots on the range). Strategically, he’s still trying to “….safely remove as much distance as possible…”.  But by using a more reliable club whether it’s 5W, 7w, hybrid, 3i, 4i…..7i.  Here’s where the nuance of my addendum to The Rule “…safely and reliably remove as much distance as possible…”  comes into play.  
 

We all agree, closer is better but you CANNOT discount a players ability/inability to execute said shot with said club.   You want to hit the ball closer to the green with your 3W but can you do it more reliably than your 7W, hybrid or 5i?   Shots get progressively more difficult to execute as we move up in the bag and there’s a reason 3W of the deck is the least used club among Am’s.

 

For all the mid-caps out there, take your own proficiency test on the range.  With a bucket of balls, hit your longest clubs ten times each never hitting the same club twice in a row (to avoid the “getting into a rhythm factor”).  Be honest with your results and you’ll quickly answer your own question which club you should be laying up with (my guess would be 5W/7W or Hybrid over 3W or 3i/4i/5i.  Define a “successful” shot as anything inside the goal posts at 70%+ of max distance with that club.  Because it’s 10 shots you’ll get your own objective success rate with each of those clubs.

 

Have fun with it.  It will be a productive way to spice up your practice anyway and maybe lower your average scores on those unreachable par 5’s.  Remember, you’re likely not making birdie anyway and making a par never hurts.  Scoring is more about double bogey & bogey avoidance.
 


 

 

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Posted (edited)
6 hours ago, LongNwrong27 said:

And yet your 40 yard prox is still probably significantly better than it is from 100

LOL.  But it’s not. Trust me, I’ve hit them both a lot and practice them both a fair bit.  I’m most comfortable in the 85-105 yard range and can put that closer to the hole than I can with a 40-50 yard pitch.  If I’m not green side, I’d rather not be inside 75 yards.

 

BTW, I couldn’t count the number of times I’ve heard announcers during a PGA tournament say, ‘he’s just laying up to a comfortable yardage…’ and that yardage is in the 80-100 yard range.

 

Oh and I played nine holes today, two par fives, layed up to 110 on the first, 95 on the second.  Put both shots inside of ten feet.  And made one of the birdie putts.

 

Edited by WesternRacing
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6 hours ago, Shilgy said:

 

I’m glad these two responses were back to back.  Ty nailed it.  For example… last season Scheffler was the leader in approaches from 100-125 yards averaging 14’ 9”(wow!) and averaged a bit over 11’ from 50-75 yards.  He’s likely more disappointed with the closer number even though it gives him a much better chance at holing the putt.  

 

Scheffler’s typically hitting into tight pin placements on really firm greens.  Most of us plebes, not so much.  On my course, I can easily average inside 15’ from 100 yards during a round.  If you gave me 10 pitches from 40 yards, I’d be lucky to get half of them inside 20 feet.  It’s just a shot that I don’t like.  Not everybody’s game is the same.

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57 minutes ago, WesternRacing said:

LOL.  But it’s not. Trust me, I’ve hit them both a lot and practice them both a fair bit.  I’m most comfortable in the 85-105 yard range and can put that closer to the hole than I can with a 40-50 yard pitch.  If I’m not green side, I’d rather not be inside 75 yards.

 

BTW, I couldn’t count the number of times I’ve heard announcers during a PGA tournament say, ‘he’s just laying up to a comfortable yardage…’ and that yardage is in the 80-100 yard range.

 

Oh and I played nine holes today, two par fives, layed up to 110 on the first, 95 on the second.  Put both shots inside of ten feet.  And made one of the birdie putts.

 

You can believe what you but data > feelings. Anecdotes are just that 

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56 minutes ago, WesternRacing said:

LOL.  But it’s not. Trust me, I’ve hit them both a lot and practice them both a fair bit.  I’m most comfortable in the 85-105 yard range and can put that closer to the hole than I can with a 40-50 yard pitch.  If I’m not green side, I’d rather not be inside 75 yards.

 

BTW, I couldn’t count the number of times I’ve heard announcers during a PGA tournament say, ‘he’s just laying up to a comfortable yardage…’ and that yardage is in the 80-100 yard range.

 

Oh and I played nine holes today, two par fives, layed up to 110 on the first, 95 on the second.  Put both shots inside of ten feet.  And made one of the birdie putts.

 

And those announcers are wrong like all the other crap they say. You may be an outlier but I doubt it 

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1 hour ago, WesternRacing said:

 

Scheffler’s typically hitting into tight pin placements on really firm greens.  Most of us plebes, not so much.  On my course, I can easily average inside 15’ from 100 yards during a round.  If you gave me 10 pitches from 40 yards, I’d be lucky to get half of them inside 20 feet.  It’s just a shot that I don’t like.  Not everybody’s game is the same.

I just haven’t ever seen a player like this. If your wedge game sucks from 40 it’s generally gonna suck from 100. They’re highly correlated 

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55 minutes ago, WesternRacing said:

 On my course, I can easily average inside 15’ from 100 yards during a round.  If you gave me 10 pitches from 40 yards, I’d be lucky to get half of them inside 20 feet.  It’s just a shot that I don’t like.  Not everybody’s game is the same.


Like I said, most folks think they are special, but most folks aren't.  Average PGA tour proximity from 100 yards is 18'5".  Average proximity from 100 yards for a 0-5 handicap is close to 50 feet.  So its pretty clear you don't have an accurate picture of your proximity statistics.  Collect some actual data and then reassess which shots you "don't like" based on your actual average proximity.   As others have said, 20' from 40 yards feels worse than 50' from 100 yards.  But 20' is a 15% putt, and 40' is a 4% putt, and 40' has 5x the likelihood of a 3 putt.       

 

If you struggle from 40 yards, then your quickest way to lower your Par 5 scores is to fix that problem, not lay back to where you have to have tour pro-level skills to get inside 20' about half the time.  The winners of tour events are making a lot of birdies from 100 yards.  The rest of us, not so much.  

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