How Many Major Championships will Scottie Scheffler Win?

[mosesgolf]

12 and he doesn’t complete the Career Slam.  I hope you all see what I just did there. 🤣

[Ferguson]

8, No slam

 

 

"He has not the game for a US OPEN."

Loren Roberts 

 

 

[Mr.Cleeks]

6 minutes ago, Ferguson said:

8, No slam

 

 

"He has not the game for a US OPEN."

Loren Roberts 

 

 

You're giving Scottie 4 more majors? 🤣

[Ferguson]

2 minutes ago, Mr.Cleeks said:

You're giving Scottie 4 more majors? 🤣

 

Yes.  He will win more, just to pi$$ me off. 

[Golferpaul]

Scotty's major win rate is 17.4%. 

 

Most in the past  60 years: Jack was 18.2%. Tiger was 19.2%.

 

That's very high bar.

 

Most recently;  Rory  7.5%, Koepka 10.9%

 

[Dutch1008]

35 minutes ago, Ferguson said:

"He has not the game for a US OPEN."

Loren Roberts 

 

In what earthly way does Scottie not have the game for the US Open? He makes as many birdies as anyone and avoids bogeys better than everyone. He's been T7 or better in 4 of the last 5 USOs. It's just a matter of time.   

[Ferguson]

12 minutes ago, Golferpaul said:

Scotty's major win rate is 17.4%. 

 

Most in the past  60 years: Jack was 18.2%. Tiger was 19.2%.

 

That's very high bar.

 

Most recently;  Rory  7.5%, Koepka 10.9%

 

 

My sons both seem to think he will stall out for a few years.  

 

[Ferguson]

Just now, Dutch1008 said:

 

In what earthly way does Scottie not have the game for the US Open? He makes as many birdies as anyone and avoids bogeys better than everyone. He's been T7 or better in 4 of the last 5 USOs. It's just a matter of time.   

 

Why hasn't he won?   

T7 or better is not a winner. 

 

Same problem as Phil. 

 

[johnseg]

The number is almost always going to be lower than you think. There are only four majors a year and the chance of being the best player those four weeks is slim. That is why guys don't win that many. I think a total of 8 is probably a good number. I can't say if one of those is a US Open but I don't think there is a reason why one couldn't be.

[m d g]

He may surprise us all and hang it up at 35...I can see that happening.

[Duct Tape]

6 hours ago, Stevens24 said:

Did not age well did it

Been there, done that. 

[Dutch1008]

1 hour ago, Ferguson said:

Why hasn't he won?   

T7 or better is not a winner. 

 

Same problem as Phil. 

 

Phil is your argument? There may not be two historically elite golfers in history that have less in common than Scottie and Phil. Phil has never see a shot he thinks can't pull off, Scottie may be the most disciplined golfer ever. Phil sprays his driver all over the course, Scottie is exceptionally straight for the horsepower he creates. Phil has never said no to a sponsorship or media opportunity in his life, Scottie avoids the business and fan side of the sport like the plague. Phil was always a swashbuckling politician that needs to be the center of attention. Scottie is a homebody that shuns anything to do w/ fame. 

 

Even a lazy Rory comp would have been more apt than Phil. Augusta was supposed to be perfect for Rory, still took him 17 tries to get it done. Scottie's game is built for the USO. That doesn't guaranty he'll win one. But Phil? Nah.   

[grm24]

7 hours ago, avrag said:

Rory always had holes in his game. Scheffler doesn't. 

This week for example, Rory chipped an putted as well or maybe better than I have ever seen him (at least in a Major). And what happens? He loses his ability with the driver (relatively speaking). 

Again all the Scottie talk is simply another case of receny bias hot take overreactions by many people here and elsewhere. Recall here after the Masters that Rory was winning the calendar grand slam and was going to catch Tiger and Jack because he can play freely now that he won the career slam. A month later some people were then saying Rory's was done. Career over. Of course it was a bunch of bull just like all of these latest and greatest takes on Scottie. It's been amazing to watch his level of play the last 3-4 years. It doesn't last forever. Didn't for TW, Jack, Ben, Arnie, Sam etc.

[Ferguson]

14 hours ago, Dutch1008 said:

 

Phil is your argument? There may not be two historically elite golfers in history that have less in common than Scottie and Phil. Phil has never see a shot he thinks can't pull off, Scottie may be the most disciplined golfer ever. Phil sprays his driver all over the course, Scottie is exceptionally straight for the horsepower he creates. Phil has never said no to a sponsorship or media opportunity in his life, Scottie avoids the business and fan side of the sport like the plague. Phil was always a swashbuckling politician that needs to be the center of attention. Scottie is a homebody that shuns anything to do w/ fame. 

 

Even a lazy Rory comp would have been more apt than Phil. Augusta was supposed to be perfect for Rory, still took him 17 tries to get it done. Scottie's game is built for the USO. That doesn't guaranty he'll win one. But Phil? Nah.   

 

When Scheffler wins a US Open, I will agree with you.  

[isaacbm]

Not sure about Majors. 7 maybe? I kind of feel like in the modern era we have (for best career):

Tiger

Phil

Rory

VJ

Keopka (maybe)

Scotty 

I think he’ll finish ahead of Rory when all is said and done.

Maybe ahead of Phil in majors though It’s tough to imagine him winning 45 tour events.
Scotty basically has to have Dustin Johnson’s entire career starting now  to leap-frog  Rory. And that’s assuming Rory doesn’t add to his.

[ChrisL52188]

I think 7.

[ChrisL52188]

23 hours ago, Dutch1008 said:

 

Phil is your argument? There may not be two historically elite golfers in history that have less in common than Scottie and Phil. Phil has never see a shot he thinks can't pull off, Scottie may be the most disciplined golfer ever. Phil sprays his driver all over the course, Scottie is exceptionally straight for the horsepower he creates. Phil has never said no to a sponsorship or media opportunity in his life, Scottie avoids the business and fan side of the sport like the plague. Phil was always a swashbuckling politician that needs to be the center of attention. Scottie is a homebody that shuns anything to do w/ fame. 

 

Even a lazy Rory comp would have been more apt than Phil. Augusta was supposed to be perfect for Rory, still took him 17 tries to get it done. Scottie's game is built for the USO. That doesn't guaranty he'll win one. But Phil? Nah.   

Phil had the talent to pull any shot off. He certainly had that kind of skill. Scottie is a different player, more like a better version of Raymond Floyd. 

[Titleist99]

How many majors will Scottie win?

 

Unlimited if he putts like he did at The Open.

 

My goodness, those clutch putts to save par were unbelievable. 

 

IMO

[bscinstnct]

 

 

 

50!

[NoTalentLefty]

10 to 12 . 

[dcfas]

I voted 10, but forgot Walter Hagen had 11. Basically, I’d put him behind Jack and Tiger and ahead of all of the other greats. But I don’t count him out to do far better.

[9thGreenAt9]

3 more for 7 total would be my guess, completes the career slam and at least one more green jacket...for MOST greats 30's will not be better than your 20's. 

[Dutch1008]

58 minutes ago, ChrisL52188 said:

Phil had the talent to pull any shot off. He certainly had that kind of skill. Scottie is a different player, more like a better version of Raymond Floyd. 

Phil is an incredible shot maker. One of the best ever. That talent helped him win at Augusta. But that full throttle nature probably cost him a USO. Scottie doesn't blow that lead at Winged Foot. He rips a 4i down the fairway and taps in for par. The goal is to win, not accrue style points. 

[Dutch1008]

This is kind of mind melting. From the Normal Sport news letter...

 

Scottie from 2022-2025 (age 26-29)

• 81 events
• 20 wins
• 4 majors
• 2 Players
• 2.8 SG/round

 

Tiger from 2002-2005 (age 26-29)

• 79 events
• 18 wins
• 4 majors
• 0 Players
• 2.8 SG/round*

 

*per Data Golf, which only includes 2004-2005.

 

Scottie certainly didn't match Tiger's production from 21-25, but it is unreasonable to think that Scottie doesn't do more in his 30's than Tiger did? Never say never but I don't think there is a massive infidelity scandal hiding in Scottie's closet. Scottie does GolfForever workouts, he's not doing Seal training and heavy lifting. I don't think an injury or tabloid takedown are high probability events. 

 

Phil won 6 majors after 30 and never possessed the complete game Scottie does. Phil did the bulk of his damage from '04 thru '08 and was consistently between +2 and +2.2 SGT. Scottie has spent the last 3 years between +2.8 and +3.2. That is a massive difference. +1 SGT is the difference between John Rahm and Nick Taylor. Between Bryson and Patrick Reed. Between Rory and modern day Jordan Spieth. 

 

I don't think Scottie getting to 10 is all that crazy. 

[Johnny Biarritz]

Mickelson's career from his age 30 season onwards is 32 PGAT wins and 6 majors. That seems attainable for Scottie. Even if it's 25 and 5, that'd be 42 career wins and 9 majors which puts Scottie in the rare air with Watson and Player. I'd say 9 is a reasonable number, 11 is a bit of a stretch.

[bcjim]

11 is my guess but my uncertainty level is high on both ends.

 

A lot depends on how he ages. Gary Player aged amazing and part of it was his lifestyle. But lots of it was genetic. 

[black bnr32]

I’ll give him a 17% rate for the next 5 years and 1 more after that.  
 

Maintain his current rate and then 1 more in his later years like Jack, Tiger, and Phil.  
 

So 8-9 total.

[ChrisL52188]

4 hours ago, Dutch1008 said:

Phil is an incredible shot maker. One of the best ever. That talent helped him win at Augusta. But that full throttle nature probably cost him a USO. Scottie doesn't blow that lead at Winged Foot. He rips a 4i down the fairway and taps in for par. The goal is to win, not accrue style points. 

Phil only lost a few US Opens because people just putted better, like Payne Stewart in 1999, and Retief Goosen in 2004. They were putting lights out, especially Payne.

People forget how good Payne was putting that day.

 

If Phil won that US Open in 1999, who knows what his record would be like now.

 

Yes at Winged Foot was his blow-up but he wasn't playing good at all that day and yet he still managed to be near the lead and lost because of his horrible 3rd shot.

Edited July 23 by ChrisL52188

[ChrisL52188]

3 hours ago, Dutch1008 said:

This is kind of mind melting. From the Normal Sport news letter...

 

Scottie from 2022-2025 (age 26-29)

• 81 events
• 20 wins
• 4 majors
• 2 Players
• 2.8 SG/round

 

Tiger from 2002-2005 (age 26-29)

• 79 events
• 18 wins
• 4 majors
• 0 Players
• 2.8 SG/round*

 

*per Data Golf, which only includes 2004-2005.

 

Scottie certainly didn't match Tiger's production from 21-25, but it is unreasonable to think that Scottie doesn't do more in his 30's than Tiger did? Never say never but I don't think there is a massive infidelity scandal hiding in Scottie's closet. Scottie does GolfForever workouts, he's not doing Seal training and heavy lifting. I don't think an injury or tabloid takedown are high probability events. 

 

Phil won 6 majors after 30 and never possessed the complete game Scottie does. Phil did the bulk of his damage from '04 thru '08 and was consistently between +2 and +2.2 SGT. Scottie has spent the last 3 years between +2.8 and +3.2. That is a massive difference. +1 SGT is the difference between John Rahm and Nick Taylor. Between Bryson and Patrick Reed. Between Rory and modern day Jordan Spieth. 

 

I don't think Scottie getting to 10 is all that crazy. 

Phil had the complete game... He just got beat by the greatest of all time in Tiger Woods...  It's pretty simple.

 

Phil's record would be astonishing if he just won earlier like Tiger did. 

Edited July 23 by ChrisL52188

[phizzy30]

6.  The talent pool is better than it was during Tiger's time.  Almost all the PGA Tour guys workout now and have nutritionists, trainers, swing coaches, etc.  Like others have said, there's only a limited window of time that these elite players have to win up as many majors as possible and that usually declines drastically after 40.  It also depends if Scottie can stay healthy for the rest of his PGA Tour career as well.  I don't really see that being an issue as his swing isn't violent and I'm pretty sure he isn't beating up his knees and back doing Navy Seal training like Tiger did.  

Edited July 23 by phizzy30