How Many Major Championships will Scottie Scheffler Win?

[StoutKing]

On 7/21/2025 at 12:24 PM, Golferpaul said:

Scotty's major win rate is 17.4%. 

 

Most in the past  60 years: Jack was 18.2%. Tiger was 19.2%.

 

That's very high bar.

 

Most recently;  Rory  7.5%, Koepka 10.9%

 

For Tiger does that count his older years?  I wonder what his win rate was before the divorce.  It had to be higher.

[BlackDiamondPar5]

6 hours ago, StoutKing said:

For Tiger does that count his older years?  I wonder what his win rate was before the divorce.  It had to be higher.

Since Scottie's first major win, 2022 Masters, I count 4 wins of 16. That's 25% win rate. Tiger over his first 16 majors played since his first major win was 5/16 or 31.25%. Tigers next 4 years (16 majors played) was 3/16 or 18.75%. 

Edited July 23 by BlackDiamondPar5

[DJDJ]

12 hours ago, Johnny Biarritz said:

Mickelson's career from his age 30 season onwards is 32 PGAT wins and 6 majors. That seems attainable for Scottie. Even if it's 25 and 5, that'd be 42 career wins and 9 majors which puts Scottie in the rare air with Watson and Player. I'd say 9 is a reasonable number, 11 is a bit of a stretch

Edited July 23 by DJDJ
Double post

[DJDJ]

12 hours ago, Johnny Biarritz said:

Mickelson's career from his age 30 season onwards is 32 PGAT wins and 6 majors. That seems attainable for Scottie. Even if it's 25 and 5, that'd be 42 career wins and 9 majors which puts Scottie in the rare air with Watson and Player. I'd say 9 is a reasonable number, 11 is a bit of a stretch.

Scottie is a more complete player in that he makes less mistakes, but fields are probably tougher now so that may offset it some.

[lopey986]

I think the only thing that stops Scottie from getting double digits will be his interest in golf. If his family continues to grow and he has to spend time away from his kids and miss their own events I could honestly see him as the type of guy who walks away from golf in his mid-to-late 30s. 

[Titleist99]

49 minutes ago, lopey986 said:

I think the only thing that stops Scottie from getting double digits will be his interest in golf. If his family continues to grow and he has to spend time away from his kids and miss their own events I could honestly see him as the type of guy who walks away from golf in his mid-to-late 30s. 

This is more likely to happen. Added kids, more responsibility at home.

[Johnny Biarritz]

5 hours ago, DJDJ said:

Scottie is a more complete player in that he makes less mistakes, but fields are probably tougher now so that may offset it some.

I used Phil as an attainably elite number. Hogan had, I believe, 43 wins and 8 majors after 30. Jack had 42 wins and 11 majors. I think those numbers are close if they're not exact. Palmer is in that realm as well. 43 and 11 would give him 60 wins (if he doesn't win another this season) and 15 majors which is inner circle elite, that's unreasonable to predict. 

[Dutch1008]

15 hours ago, ChrisL52188 said:

Phil had the complete game... He just got beat by the greatest of all time in Tiger Woods...  It's pretty simple.

 

Phil's record would be astonishing if he just won earlier like Tiger did. 

 

Phil won a pro tournament as an amateur. That's about as early as you can do it. 

 

I grew up a Phil fan. I loved the dude. His 1st win at Augusta is one of my favorite golfing memories. He's one of the greatest of all time and yes, he had a complete game. But numbers don't lie. Phil's best year, from a pure scoring perspective, was 2000 (bad timing 😬). He clocked in at +2.44 Strokes Gained Total. From that year through 2008, he was mostly a +2 SGT golfer. That's exceptional golf. A +2 SGT is pretty much a guaranty that you are one of the 3 best golfers walking the planet at any given time.  

 

That is the type of golf that Rory, Xander, and Rahm have been playing. But that is nowhere close to the golf that Scottie has played for the last 3 years. So what's the difference? Personally, I don't think Scottie has a shot in his bag that Phil can't pull off and I also believe that Phil has shots in his bag that Scottie can't do. So why is Scottie so much better? I think it's simple and is golf's holy grail, Scottie's bad shots are materially better than Phil's. It's not about how good your good is, it's about how good your bad is. When Scottie makes a mistake, one, it's usually small, two, he doesn't let it compound, and three, he flips the momentum back better than everyone (at Majors, he follows up bogeys w/ birdies like 45% of the time). 

 

People tend to remember big shots, big blowups, and final rounds. Maybe a hot putter truly is all that separated Phil from Payne and Retief. However, I bet if you dug into the full tournament, there is probably a sloppy bogey or two on Thu or Fri or an easy birdie missed early. Small events were Phil went after a pin he shouldn't, tried to pull off an impossible chip, but didn't. If they don't happen on a back 9 on Sunday, we don't remember, but those little mistakes add up in the end. That aggression and risk taking means Phil is going to pull off some miracles that Scottie is not even going to attempt. But it also means he's going to get his hand stuck in the cookie jar on occasion.  

 

A whole lot of things need to go right for Scottie to match Phil's production in his 30s. He needs to stay healthy, he needs to stay focused, some wunderkind like Blades Brown or Miles Russell can't evolve into Tiger 2.0. But Scottie has a couple things going for him that Phil didn't. One, Scottie is better than Phil, like 1 shot per round and 4 shots per tournament better than Phil. Two, Scottie doesn't have to compete w/ Tiger Woods like Phil did. Scottie IS the Tiger Woods of his era. Scottie isn't going to win them all. He's going to get clipped by Rory, Rahm, Xander, Bryson, and others on occasion. But Scottie is the alpha, as Rory said, "he is the bar". Scottie doesn't need to get better, everybody else does.    

[bladehunter]

On 7/20/2025 at 7:51 PM, grm24 said:

Same type of things were said about Rory. How long did he just go between majors? 11 years. You never know when it could be a players last win. Major or not. Recency bias strikes again.

True. But Rory has always been a headcase.  I like the kid. But. If his putter is off. Or if he floats a wedge into trouble. He sulks.  When this happens to Scottie. He bares down.  Sometimes that fails too. But his bounce back stat is crazy good.  He’s not interested in pouting.  That and the fade.  Faders just don’t hit it as wild as often.  

[johnseg]

Just now, bladehunter said:

True. But Rory has always been a headcase.  I like the kid. But. If his putter is off. Or if he floats a wedge into trouble. He sulks.  When this happens to Scottie. He bares down.  Sometimes that fails too. But his bounce back stat is crazy good.  He’s not interested in pouting.  That and the fade.  Faders just don’t hit it as wild as often.  

Well, nobody would have bet on 11 years between Majors for Rory. It just goes to show it is hard to win on a specific week. Your game has to be on point and someone else can't go nuts. I look back at Stenson's Open Championship at Troon. It didn't matter how good someone else played (Phil posted -17) he was going to win. Those things happen sometimes.

 

I would be surprised if Sheffler went 11 years without a major but not floored.

[Dutch1008]

1 hour ago, johnseg said:

I would be surprised if Sheffler went 11 years without a major but not floored.

 

I would be. Tiger went 11 years between majors but that was really due to injury and scandal. Rory went 11 years but Scottie is just flat out better than Rory. 

 

Outside of a serious injury or Scottie weirdly walking away to become a minister of the church or something, I'd be completely floored if he goes a decade w/o a major. 

[P880]

In a post-Open video, Bryson talked about playing Scottie in college and how Scottie was "...not that good  [in college]...".  It makes me think that SS practiced really hard to get where he is, maybe harder than other pro golfers.  SS talks about the love of practice, working and competing.  If SS can maintain his competitive drive, and willingness to work, I could easily see 4 - 6 more majors; not as one of his goals, but as a by-product of work.  As an aside, I do NOT find him to be boring.

[Dutch1008]

9 minutes ago, P880 said:

In a post-Open video, Bryson talked about playing Scottie in college and how Scottie was "...not that good  [in college]...".  It makes me think that SS practiced really hard to get where he is, maybe harder than other pro golfers.  SS talks about the love of practice, working and competing.  If SS can maintain his competitive drive, and willingness to work, I could easily see 4 - 6 more majors; not as one of his goals, but as a by-product of work.  As an aside, I do NOT find him to be boring.

 

Bryson must have a bad memory. Take a quick peak at Scottie's wiki page. Dude won the 2013 US Jr Am. He matched Jordan Spieth's record of winning the Texas HS championship 3 times. Was the #1 ranked Am in 2014. Played in the Byron Nelson at 17. He won the Western Intercollegiate at Pasatiempo as a Freshman, won the Big XII individual title and was named the Phil Mickelson Freshman of the Year. Qualified for the 2016 USO at 19 and was the round 1 leader. Qualified again in 2017 and won low am. Hurt his back as a Sophomore and didn't do much after that. Perhaps that is when he tangled w/ Bryson? 

 

Bryson was an unbelievable amateur but Scottie was no late blooming slouch. Prior to the back injury he was the dude. He didn't burst on to the scene like Jordan Spieth but his ascent hasn't really been slow...

 

2019 - KFT POY

2020 - PGAT ROY

2021 - 3 major Top 10s + Ryder Cup

2022 - World #1, 4 wins, 1st major

2023 - 2025 - World #1, 16 wins, 3 more majors

[Golferpaul]

On 7/22/2025 at 11:42 PM, StoutKing said:

For Tiger does that count his older years?  I wonder what his win rate was before the divorce.  It had to be higher.

His peak cumulative win percentage was 30% in 2009.  Then it gradually declined to 23.5% in 2019.

 

Year	Age at EOY	Entered	Wins	cum wins	Cum entered	cum pct wins	Year win pct
1996	21	8	2	2	8	25%	25.0%
1997	22	21	4	6	29	21%	19.0%
1998	23	20	1	7	49	14%	5.0%
1999	24	21	8	15	70	21%	38.1%
2000	25	20	9	24	90	27%	45.0%
2001	26	19	5	29	109	26.6%	26.3%
2002	27	18	5	34	127	27%	27.8%
2003	28	18	5	39	145	27%	27.8%
2004	29	19	1	40	164	24%	5.3%
2005	30	21	6	46	185	25%	28.6%
2006	31	15	8	54	200	27%	53.3%
2007	32	16	7	61	216	28%	43.8%
2008	33	6	4	65	222	29%	66.7%
2009	34	17	6	71	239	30%	35.3%
2010	35	12	0	71	251	28%	0.0%
2011	36	9	0	71	260	27%	0.0%
2012	37	19	3	74	279	27%	15.8%
2013	38	16	5	79	295	27%	31.3%
2014	39	7	0	79	302	26.2%	0.0%
2015	40	11	0	79	313	25.2%	0.0%
2016	41	0	0	79	313	25.2%	0.0%
2017	42	1	0	79	314	25.2%	0.0%
2018	43	18	1	80	332	24.1%	5.6%
2019	44	12	1	81	344	23.5%	8.3%

[Golferpaul]

On 7/23/2025 at 7:34 PM, Dutch1008 said:

 

Bryson must have a bad memory. Take a quick peak at Scottie's wiki page. Dude won the 2013 US Jr Am. He matched Jordan Spieth's record of winning the Texas HS championship 3 times. Was the #1 ranked Am in 2014. Played in the Byron Nelson at 17. He won the Western Intercollegiate at Pasatiempo as a Freshman, won the Big XII individual title and was named the Phil Mickelson Freshman of the Year. Qualified for the 2016 USO at 19 and was the round 1 leader. Qualified again in 2017 and won low am. Hurt his back as a Sophomore and didn't do much after that. Perhaps that is when he tangled w/ Bryson? 

 

Bryson was an unbelievable amateur but Scottie was no late blooming slouch. Prior to the back injury he was the dude. He didn't burst on to the scene like Jordan Spieth but his ascent hasn't really been slow...

 

2019 - KFT POY

2020 - PGAT ROY

2021 - 3 major Top 10s + Ryder Cup

2022 - World #1, 4 wins, 1st major

2023 - 2025 - World #1, 16 wins, 3 more majors

Then there is this:

 

From 2004 to 2010, Scheffler showcased his skills by winning nearly 60% of the tournaments he participated in on the Northern Texas PGA Junior Tour. This incredible achievement amounted to a staggering total of 74 victories, a testament to his exceptional abilities and unwavering dedication to the sport.

 

How Many Junior Tournaments Did Scheffler Win? - The Brassie

[Carson33]

It would be fun to watch him get to 10. He is clicking right now, but you never know what will happen. In 2015, I thought Speith would win 10 majors. 

 

I could see Scottie winning the US Open to finish the career GS, and then pulling back from the game to grow his family and spend more time with them.

[wrlwnd]

So hard to predict because it really comes down to when Scottie mentally and / or physically walks away from the game.

 

I always thought Tiger would beat Jack because he was a killer, who was going to break all the records no matter what.  And then the bottom fell out.  So I was certainly wrong about someone that I thought was a surer (is that a word?) bet than Scottie.

 

I'm gonna guess 10.

[Dutch1008]

14 hours ago, wrlwnd said:

So hard to predict because it really comes down to when Scottie mentally and / or physically walks away from the game.

 

I always thought Tiger would beat Jack because he was a killer, who was going to break all the records no matter what.  And then the bottom fell out.  So I was certainly wrong about someone that I thought was a surer (is that a word?) bet than Scottie.

 

I'm gonna guess 10.

 

I don't really think Scottie is a threat to Jack or Tiger and I don't think anybody is really arguing that position. Scottie just didn't have the early career success that could open those possibilities. Scottie didn't start eating the world until he was 26. Jack, Tiger, Rory, Jordan started knocking off majors at 21. Had Scottie match Rory or Jordan from ages 21-25 we could be having some interesting conversations. But he didn't. 

 

Early career not withstanding, Scottie has matched Tiger win for win between the ages 26 to 29. Which is pretty bananas. If he can match Phil is his 30s (monumental task), we'll be talking about a guy on golf's Mt Rushmore.