Will Scottie get ANY actual competition any time soon? (A study)

[Shilgy]

On 7/25/2025 at 1:52 PM, Birdman62 said:

 

As far as your last statement is concerned, I would agree with you.

 

Well, Tiger's competition was a different issue, and a different study, which I actually did about ten years ago. Note I wasn't focusing on Tiger's competition at all per se here, as someone else brought that up. But since it has been raised, then let me address how often Tiger's rivals dueled him down to the final hole or two.

 

The shocking answer is "hardly ever." The top players of Tiger's time pretty much gave him a free pass to the vast majority of his majors.  Tho there were some exceptions: Augusta 2001, +2/+3 over Lefty/Duval, 2007 PGA +3 over Els. Note this is NOT the same as saying he would have lost significantly more than he did, if he indeed had to duel them down to the final shot, and his peak and dominance are also not being questioned. But he basically never went down to the final hole or a playoff having to hold off any of the top players of his time; instead he was dueling the likes of Bob May, Chris DiMarco, and Rocco Mediate. The contrast with Jack, who dueled Watson and Trevino like half a dozen times each to the very end, and Arnie a few more, couldn't be any starker; no matter how you studied it, you couldn't miss the gap there.

 

It was a two-way street of course, as Tiger winning so many denied these guys a chance to get more until after 2008. His actual overlapping competition in terms of peaks weren't those guys, who won all of their majors after that year, but were Ernie, Lefty, Vijay,, and  tho I'll grant Sergio since he had 4 2nds, and maybe Lee Westwood (c.f. the 2008 US Open).  Harrington, Goosen, and Cabrera by contrast were his rivals just for a few year's worth more or less note. Recall Tiger had relatively few 2nd's and 3rd's as well.

 

IOW if the "Tiger Effect" was a real thing, it says a lot more about his competition than it does about him. Were Lee Trevino or Tom Watson intimidated by Jack? I'd actually say they both had the right kind of personality to challenge him, a carefree approach to the game which basically was pressure-proof.

 

Note I did compare SS to Tom a few days ago.

 

SS likewise has had few such close duels either: Rory was 5 back @ Augusta 2022 going into the final hole, where SS had a meaningless double. Likewise Bryson was 2nd, but 5 back as well in the PGA this year. Scottie did lose by 2 to Koepka in 2023 of course, so I'd count that, and by 1 to Fitzpatrick in 2022. Again if he is beating them 3-5 shots he deserves all the credit there as nobody gets a fraction of a win/trophy/green jacket, but the fact remains none of them have stepped up their games when SS was on his A-game, other than Koepka there that one time.

Funny thing is…Jack never won a major with Watson or Trevino finishing second. NEVER. Arnie finished second three times in majors to Jack….once in a playoff and the other two were by 3 and 9 strokes.  9 strokes is hardly a “battle”.  When Jack battled with Trevino in majors…he lost. 4x.  Watson same thing. 4x Jack was second to Watson in majors.

 

Scheffler is only 29 yers old.  Let’s hold off saying he’s never challenged until his career is over…or at least closer to it.  

[tiderider]

22 hours ago, Mr.Cleeks said:

I think Bryson could be the guy to challenge Scottie if he cleans a few things up. Bryson’s floor crazy high and he went T5-T2-T10 at the Masters/PGA/Open with his C game. If he figures how to hit a fade with the irons watch out

is he trying to 'figure out' how to hit fades? ... scottie's brilliance isn't 'brilliant' ... he moves the ball around more than anyone else (or at least, that I'm aware of) ... no two swings of his are the same ... uphill lie with the ball below your feet? ... he's gonna whirly bird it to get it to cut/draw whatever ... cause he's got the short game to make up for a miss ... BD isn't trying to figure out a fade, as far as I'm aware ... he's publicly stated he needs a better golf ball to go with his swing speed ... not sure where you're getting this "once he figures out a fade" from ... 

[tiderider]

4 minutes ago, Shilgy said:

Funny thing is…Jack never won a major with Watson or Trevino finishing second. NEVER. Arnie finished second three times in majors to Jack….once in a playoff and the other two were by 3 and 9 strokes.  9 strokes is hardly a “battle”.  When Jack battled with Trevino in majors…he lost. 4x.  Watson same thing. 4x Jack was second to Watson in majors.

 

Scheffler is only 29 yers old.  Let’s hold off saying he’s never challenged until his career is over…or at least closer to it.  

the range of expressions over his game/success is infinitely interesting to me (cause if you're going to spend time thinking about something, might as well be golf) ... he's going to hit a wall, he's burned out, he's on a heater that will end suddenly, he's bored, he's got no competition, he's this, he's that ... and I think Rory will continue to battle and give SS his competition that apparently SS needs ... we've too easily overlooked Rory's career ... 

 

PGAt golf is in a great place right now ... I grew up in the nomadic landscape of the '80s and early '90s ... golfers are more fit now, with so much technology ... looking forward to the next 5 years, for sure ... no one's burned out ... nobody's going to look at their bank account and wife and ask "do we have enough?" (silly statement, at best) ... SS and Rory and Xander and the Reeds of the world are going to compete for titles ... can't wait ... 

[Shilgy]

3 hours ago, tiderider said:

the range of expressions over his game/success is infinitely interesting to me (cause if you're going to spend time thinking about something, might as well be golf) ... he's going to hit a wall, he's burned out, he's on a heater that will end suddenly, he's bored, he's got no competition, he's this, he's that ... and I think Rory will continue to battle and give SS his competition that apparently SS needs ... we've too easily overlooked Rory's career ... 

 

PGAt golf is in a great place right now ... I grew up in the nomadic landscape of the '80s and early '90s ... golfers are more fit now, with so much technology ... looking forward to the next 5 years, for sure ... no one's burned out ... nobody's going to look at their bank account and wife and ask "do we have enough?" (silly statement, at best) ... SS and Rory and Xander and the Reeds of the world are going to compete for titles ... can't wait ... 

I must be having a brain fart….Reed who?   Surely you don’t mean Patrick?  For the life of me I can think of a “Reed” that’s competing.🤔

[jimecherry]

2 minutes ago, Shilgy said:

I must be having a brain fart….Reed who?   Surely you don’t mean Patrick?  For the life of me I can think of a “Reed” that’s competing.🤔

Reed has to be a typo surely he meant Shipley

[Shilgy]

2 minutes ago, jimecherry said:

Reed has to be a typo surely he meant Shipley

Well sure….the s and r are fairly close together on the keyboard …e and h aren’t too far apart….e and I re getting further apart yet….but d and p?🤔

We’ll just blame spell check.🙄

[Mr.Cleeks]

4 hours ago, tiderider said:

is he trying to 'figure out' how to hit fades? ... scottie's brilliance isn't 'brilliant' ... he moves the ball around more than anyone else (or at least, that I'm aware of) ... no two swings of his are the same ... uphill lie with the ball below your feet? ... he's gonna whirly bird it to get it to cut/draw whatever ... cause he's got the short game to make up for a miss ... BD isn't trying to figure out a fade, as far as I'm aware ... he's publicly stated he needs a better golf ball to go with his swing speed ... not sure where you're getting this "once he figures out a fade" from ... 

Scottie's draw is more of a straight ball that falls maybe 2 yards left. I actually haven't seen him do the whirly bird in a while. 

[tiderider]

41 minutes ago, Mr.Cleeks said:

Scottie's draw is more of a straight ball that falls maybe 2 yards left. I actually haven't seen him do the whirly bird in a while. 

hit plenty of cut iron shots at the Open, if a cut shot is what you're referring to ... par four on the back nine on Saturday (thereabouts; can't remember since I'd been watching golf for 5 hours) ... Rory hits a huge blast down there, but the hole is tucked right with wind off the right ... Rory tries to hit the only shot he's comfortable hitting, esp with a short iron/wedge, the highest draw imaginable ... hits left and moves further left cause of the wind ... 35 ft for birdie ... SS cuts a longer club into the wind and though he's a bit short, it would've been about 15 ft left ... missed the putt, but it was a lot closer than Rory's ... SS hits plenty of cuts ... maybe not with the driver, but with the irons ... 

[tiderider]

1 hour ago, Shilgy said:

I must be having a brain fart….Reed who?   Surely you don’t mean Patrick?  For the life of me I can think of a “Reed” that’s competing.🤔

ha ... not sure why I put him in there ... he's a dog, for sure ... kind of guy who can win several tournaments over a career and maybe a major or two ... 

 

 

if he were playing professional golf ... 

 

[Shilgy]

Just now, tiderider said:

ha ... not sure why I put him in there ... he's a dog, for sure ... kind of guy who can win several tournaments over a career and maybe a major or two ... 

 

 

if he were playing professional golf ... 

 

Never occurred to me before but they do look quite similar.🤣

[Mr.Cleeks]

2 hours ago, tiderider said:

hit plenty of cut iron shots at the Open, if a cut shot is what you're referring to ... par four on the back nine on Saturday (thereabouts; can't remember since I'd been watching golf for 5 hours) ... Rory hits a huge blast down there, but the hole is tucked right with wind off the right ... Rory tries to hit the only shot he's comfortable hitting, esp with a short iron/wedge, the highest draw imaginable ... hits left and moves further left cause of the wind ... 35 ft for birdie ... SS cuts a longer club into the wind and though he's a bit short, it would've been about 15 ft left ... missed the putt, but it was a lot closer than Rory's ... SS hits plenty of cuts ... maybe not with the driver, but with the irons ... 

Nah was referring to the draw. It’s pretty well known Scottie’s stock shot is a fade.

[PedronNiall]

9 hours ago, Golfnutgalen said:

This place seems as good as any to post some datagolf stats. I got the premium subscription because I've always loved stats but only for 1 month.

 

Here's Scottie from 2022- current. There are about 4 players within 1 stroke of his SG average. Cantlay is close enough, just a hair over 1 stroke:

 

 

9 hours ago, Golfnutgalen said:

Here's Tiger as well for comparison. It's a shame that the data doesn't go back any further than 2004 on this stats page. 

 

 

Tiger was on some Apocalypse game. 

 

 

Scottie has almost 2x Rory's wins and is just over half a stroke better in SG. Tiger has almost the same SG advantage over Scheffler, and it's not like it's just as easy to gain strokes the further you get from the field as it is when you're even slightly closer to the average. The stats always put in perspective how absurd Tiger was at his best compared to his competition. 

[Golfnutgalen]

1 hour ago, PedronNiall said:

 

 

Tiger was on some Apocalypse game. 

 

Scottie has almost 2x Rory's wins and is just over half a stroke better in SG. Tiger has almost the same SG advantage over Scheffler, and it's not like it's just as easy to gain strokes the further you get from the field as it is when you're even slightly closer to the average. The stats always put in perspective how absurd Tiger was at his best compared to his competition. 

 

Yeah, I thought Tiger and Scottie were closer. I calculated Tiger's average from 1996-2009 as well and that amounted to +3.12. Take out his first 3 years and start in 1999 and it's back up to +3.33. Crazy stuff. 

 

If I start Scottie in 2020 his first year on tour his average is +2.40

 

[SARF]

It looks like Scottie will for sure win more than anyone else in the next couple of years... but he can for sure be challenged on a tournament by tournament basis... I mean even if you just look at the Open @ Portrush... Scottie putted lights out and it felt like Rory made lots of mistakes, change a few of these and he is contending. That is just an example, things can change quickly. 

[tiderider]

12 hours ago, Mr.Cleeks said:

Nah was referring to the draw. It’s pretty well known Scottie’s stock shot is a fade.

thought you were referring to the fade since you used "whirly bird" ... though what I've seen, he'll  hit a draw with his irons in a heartbeat if the shot calls for it ... 

Edited July 28 by tiderider

[Pepperturbo]

On 7/26/2025 at 9:47 AM, PedronNiall said:

Scottie lacks competition because his nearest cohorts are either chasing swing changes, in a bad headspace, or both.

 

Rory's not only on his weirdness where he hitches in every takeaway as he chases power but he's gone back to his bad place of getting across the line and then having to save it on the way down.

 

Morikawa is so obsessed with his cut he's playing banana ball out there and has difficulty doing anything else. He's going through caddies, whining and/or snapping at the media, and overall lost when it comes to any consistency. Maybe marital problems?

 

Xander after winning two Majors last year decided he needed to tweak, as one does when their swing is good enough to win the big hardware, of course, and is now obsessed with working on getting to where his lead arm is dead straight.

 

Hovland is a nutter when it comes to chasing moves, feels, looks, and YouTube secrets. Like Xander, immediately upon having the best year of his career he was certain a some change would make things better, and so he set off to not only make the change, but went full send on making changes before he had even figured out what specific changes needed to happen.

 

DeShambles is chasing designing equipment to offset whatever's going on with him at the moment, everything from irons with bulging faces and the ultimate forgiving driver to toying with finding a ball that will let him get away with anything and everything. Quite the irony having the guy who went full machine to "simplify" the swing darting all over the place looking for cures.

 

Rahm seems to have lost any real focus, as one does when they have $300M+ banked and are playing in a hit & giggle league; he's somehow delusional he's going to get to Scottie's level while facing real competition hungry to win and be around next year only on four occasions each season.

 

Hatton only has four times a year to play real golf as well so no real telling how he'd be showing if he were still on the Tour, but despite not being a fan of his antics have to admit he'd probably be the most consistent and would have a world ranking aligning with his actual ability if he hadn't jumped ship.

 

JT is the short game king, but his long game gets streakier by the year as he continues trying to maintain his ultra steep swing. 

 

JJ has simple enough things going on he could keep peaking a few times a year and get it done. 

 

There's no one out there now who's comfortable enough in what they're doing to consistently play to Scottie's level, but if they'd get out of their heads they could as a group put up a much better front.

 

The actual young guys aren't in Scottie's league at all, but as @Dutch1008 and others pointed out, it's not the norm for the early 20-somethings to be the powerhouses. Åberg and Friends gave plenty of time before they peak, and he, Bhatia, and many of the others in that group have already managed wins, so they're trending in the right direction.

In Jack's day he had AP, GP, Travino and Seve, etc. Scottie has his current (as you say) uncomfortable competitors, who win. So, IMO, what you suggested is normal in any given field. Have a pleasant day.