Adam Scott projections

[cdnglf]

With his Masters win, Adam Scott is now clearly the second best player in his 30s*. He's not yet 33, with 9 PGA Tour wins including the Masters and the Players, and a further 7 Euro wins. I think a conservative estimate for him is 25 total wins, and a reasonably optimistic estimate is in the low 30s, with one more major. If he takes his game up a notch (which is not unusual for a guy to do in his early to mid thirties) and has some really big years, he might start to approach Phil/Vijay/Ernie level. In any case, I like his Hall of Fame chances.

 

edit:

* possibly excluding Lee Westwood, who doesn't turn 40 for another week and a half.

[Frankensteins Monster]

[quote name='cdnglf' timestamp='1366050259' post='6850305']
[b]With his Masters win, Adam Scott is now clearly the second best player in his 30s[/b]*. He's not yet 33, with 9 PGA Tour wins including the Masters and the Players, and a further 7 Euro wins. I think a conservative estimate for him is 25 total wins, and a reasonably optimistic estimate is in the low 30s, with one more major. If he takes his game up a notch (which is not unusual for a guy to do in his early to mid thirties) and has some really big years, he might start to approach Phil/Vijay/Ernie level. In any case, I like his Hall of Fame chances.

edit:
* possibly excluding Lee Westwood, who doesn't turn 40 for another week and a half.
[/quote]

Really? He has two wins in two years. OK, one is the Masters but Snedeker has three wins in two years, FedEx Cup win and a bunch more high finishes than Scott.

[tembolo1284]

[quote name='Frankensteins Monster' timestamp='1366050768' post='6850387']
[quote name='cdnglf' timestamp='1366050259' post='6850305']
[b]With his Masters win, Adam Scott is now clearly the second best player in his 30s[/b]*. He's not yet 33, with 9 PGA Tour wins including the Masters and the Players, and a further 7 Euro wins. I think a conservative estimate for him is 25 total wins, and a reasonably optimistic estimate is in the low 30s, with one more major. If he takes his game up a notch (which is not unusual for a guy to do in his early to mid thirties) and has some really big years, he might start to approach Phil/Vijay/Ernie level. In any case, I like his Hall of Fame chances.

edit:
* possibly excluding Lee Westwood, who doesn't turn 40 for another week and a half.
[/quote]

Really? He has two wins in two years. OK, one is the Masters but Snedeker has three wins in two years, FedEx Cup win and a bunch more high finishes than Scott.
[/quote]

Agree with this. I miss your old avatar!

[Frankensteins Monster]

[quote name='tembolo1284' timestamp='1366050853' post='6850403']
[quote name='Frankensteins Monster' timestamp='1366050768' post='6850387']
[quote name='cdnglf' timestamp='1366050259' post='6850305']
[b]With his Masters win, Adam Scott is now clearly the second best player in his 30s[/b]*. He's not yet 33, with 9 PGA Tour wins including the Masters and the Players, and a further 7 Euro wins. I think a conservative estimate for him is 25 total wins, and a reasonably optimistic estimate is in the low 30s, with one more major. If he takes his game up a notch (which is not unusual for a guy to do in his early to mid thirties) and has some really big years, he might start to approach Phil/Vijay/Ernie level. In any case, I like his Hall of Fame chances.

edit:
* possibly excluding Lee Westwood, who doesn't turn 40 for another week and a half.
[/quote]

Really? He has two wins in two years. OK, one is the Masters but Snedeker has three wins in two years, FedEx Cup win and a bunch more high finishes than Scott.
[/quote]

Agree with this. I miss your old avatar!
[/quote]

It will be back my friend.

[cdnglf]

[quote name='Frankensteins Monster' timestamp='1366050768' post='6850387']
[quote name='cdnglf' timestamp='1366050259' post='6850305']
[b]With his Masters win, Adam Scott is now clearly the second best player in his 30s[/b]*. He's not yet 33, with 9 PGA Tour wins including the Masters and the Players, and a further 7 Euro wins. I think a conservative estimate for him is 25 total wins, and a reasonably optimistic estimate is in the low 30s, with one more major. If he takes his game up a notch (which is not unusual for a guy to do in his early to mid thirties) and has some really big years, he might start to approach Phil/Vijay/Ernie level. In any case, I like his Hall of Fame chances.

edit:
* possibly excluding Lee Westwood, who doesn't turn 40 for another week and a half.
[/quote]

Really? He has two wins in two years. OK, one is the Masters but Snedeker has three wins in two years, FedEx Cup win and a bunch more high finishes than Scott.
[/quote]

And yet Scott is ranked #3 in the world, comfortably ahead of Snedeker.

Perhaps I should have been more clear, I meant "second best career" of anyone in their 30s.
Snedeker has 5 wins total - he isn't even in that discussion.

[Frankensteins Monster]

[quote name='cdnglf' timestamp='1366051219' post='6850463']
[quote name='Frankensteins Monster' timestamp='1366050768' post='6850387']
[quote name='cdnglf' timestamp='1366050259' post='6850305']
[b]With his Masters win, Adam Scott is now clearly the second best player in his 30s[/b]*. He's not yet 33, with 9 PGA Tour wins including the Masters and the Players, and a further 7 Euro wins. I think a conservative estimate for him is 25 total wins, and a reasonably optimistic estimate is in the low 30s, with one more major. If he takes his game up a notch (which is not unusual for a guy to do in his early to mid thirties) and has some really big years, he might start to approach Phil/Vijay/Ernie level. In any case, I like his Hall of Fame chances.

edit:
* possibly excluding Lee Westwood, who doesn't turn 40 for another week and a half.
[/quote]

Really? He has two wins in two years. OK, one is the Masters but Snedeker has three wins in two years, FedEx Cup win and a bunch more high finishes than Scott.
[/quote]

And yet Scott is ranked #3 in the world, comfortably ahead of Snedeker.

Perhaps I should have been more clear, I meant "second best career" of anyone in their 30s.
Snedeker has 5 wins total - he isn't even in that discussion.
[/quote]

Snedeker has more wins, four, than Scott does, two, in their 30's. And I'll venture more top 10's also in their 30's.

[Socrates]

[quote name='cdnglf' timestamp='1366050259' post='6850305']
With his Masters win, Adam Scott is now clearly the second best player in his 30s*. He's not yet 33, with 9 PGA Tour wins including the Masters and the Players, and a further 7 Euro wins. I think a conservative estimate for him is 25 total wins, and a reasonably optimistic estimate is in the low 30s, with one more major. If he takes his game up a notch (which is not unusual for a guy to do in his early to mid thirties) and has some really big years, he might start to approach Phil/Vijay/Ernie level. In any case, I like his Hall of Fame chances.

edit:
* possibly excluding Lee Westwood, who doesn't turn 40 for another week and a half.
[/quote]
He's got 2 1/2 years left of good golf (if 14-1b goes into effect). I think he might win 3-5 times in that span. After that he is a journeyman pro who can't putt well. Certain to not reach the goals you project.

[cdnglf]

[quote name='Frankensteins Monster' timestamp='1366051987' post='6850581']
[quote name='cdnglf' timestamp='1366051219' post='6850463']
[quote name='Frankensteins Monster' timestamp='1366050768' post='6850387']
[quote name='cdnglf' timestamp='1366050259' post='6850305']
[b]With his Masters win, Adam Scott is now clearly the second best player in his 30s[/b]*. He's not yet 33, with 9 PGA Tour wins including the Masters and the Players, and a further 7 Euro wins. I think a conservative estimate for him is 25 total wins, and a reasonably optimistic estimate is in the low 30s, with one more major. If he takes his game up a notch (which is not unusual for a guy to do in his early to mid thirties) and has some really big years, he might start to approach Phil/Vijay/Ernie level. In any case, I like his Hall of Fame chances.

edit:
* possibly excluding Lee Westwood, who doesn't turn 40 for another week and a half.
[/quote]

Really? He has two wins in two years. OK, one is the Masters but Snedeker has three wins in two years, FedEx Cup win and a bunch more high finishes than Scott.
[/quote]

And yet Scott is ranked #3 in the world, comfortably ahead of Snedeker.

Perhaps I should have been more clear, I meant "second best career" of anyone in their 30s.
Snedeker has 5 wins total - he isn't even in that discussion.
[/quote]

Snedeker has more wins, four, than Scott does, two, in their 30's. And I'll venture more top 10's also in their 30's.
[/quote]

I said "second best career of anyone in their 30s", by which I meant second best total career of anyone currently in their 30s. I didn't say "second best part of a career while in their 30s" (the answer there would be neither Scott nor Snedeker... Westwood aside, maybe ZJ). Figured it was obvious from the context but perhaps I was mistaken.

Scott and Snedeker are both in their 30s. Scott's career to date is at least twice as good as Snedeker's, probably closer to 3 times as good.

[cdnglf]

[quote name='Socrates' timestamp='1366052544' post='6850677']
[quote name='cdnglf' timestamp='1366050259' post='6850305']
With his Masters win, Adam Scott is now clearly the second best player in his 30s*. He's not yet 33, with 9 PGA Tour wins including the Masters and the Players, and a further 7 Euro wins. I think a conservative estimate for him is 25 total wins, and a reasonably optimistic estimate is in the low 30s, with one more major. If he takes his game up a notch (which is not unusual for a guy to do in his early to mid thirties) and has some really big years, he might start to approach Phil/Vijay/Ernie level. In any case, I like his Hall of Fame chances.

edit:
* possibly excluding Lee Westwood, who doesn't turn 40 for another week and a half.
[/quote]
He's got 2 1/2 years left of good golf (if 14-1b goes into effect). I think he might win 3-5 times in that span. After that he is a journeyman pro who can't putt well. Certain to not reach the goals you project.
[/quote]

14-1 could put a damper on things if it goes thru, but I don't agree its "certain" to prevent him from winning. He did win the Players and a bunch of other tournaments with a conventional putter.

[dlygrisse]

I give him one more major and 10-15 more wins on the PGA tour, and 10-15 more wins world wide.

[jjd975]

I project that he will still play well this year. It's easy for guys to disappear for a bit after winningthe Masters, I don't see that with Scott.

[Socrates]

[quote name='cdnglf' timestamp='1366053544' post='6850817']
14-1 could put a damper on things if it goes thru, but I don't agree its "certain" to prevent him from winning. He did win the Players and a bunch of other tournaments with a conventional putter.
[/quote]
He's 33ish. Two more, he'll be 35 and from about that age on putting becomes more difficult for most. Can be tragic for someone who putts poorly by Tour standards. I'll stand by my statement.

[bscinstnct]

With the confidence he gets from winning at Augusta

And the broomstick

Sky is the limit. He could go on a tear til they ban the belly. Then he is finished.

[One Gray GLI]

I'm gonna laugh at the "haters" if/when he goes back to a conventional putter, puts the time during these next two years practicing with it, and wins more often after the ban.

[dmbgolfer]

I think the confidence he gets from this win will serve him well when he goes back to a short putter and he'll do just fine.

Also, he'll remain the most handsome guy on tour.

[bscinstnct]

[quote name='One Gray GLI' timestamp='1366054429' post='6850997']
I'm gonna laugh at the "haters" if/when he goes back to a conventional putter, puts the time during these next two years practicing with it, and wins more often after the ban.
[/quote]

Id like to see that. Not hating on him, just can't stand the sight on those things. Legal, of course, but really really lame.

How can your hands shake if you are holding that piece of re-bar?

[wholeinwon]

I'll start by saying I love Adam Scott, he is one of my favourite golfers to watch and one of the most deserving of finally getting a major under his belt.

Mickelson has won 4 Majors, 41 times on the PGA Tour and 7 times on the Euro Tour.
Singh has won 3 Majors, 31 times on the PGA Tour and 13 times on the Euro Tour.
Els has won 4 Majors, 19 times on the PGA Tour and 27 times on the Euro Tour.

Adam Scott isn't a PGA Tour rookie, he won the Players almost 10 years ago!

He's won 7 times on the PGA Tour in 9 years since the Players Championship in 2004 and 1 Major Championship. Adding to that he's won 3 other European Tour events in that timespan. That means in 9 years since winning the Players Championship Adam Scott has won a total of 10 golf tournaments on the PGA and Euro Tour.

He's had 4 career top 5's in Majors.

How can you even begin to say he might start to approach Vijay/Phil/Ernie?!?!?!?

Vijay won 9 tournaments in 2004 alone!!!!!

To get to 30 wins on the PGA Tour Adam Scott would have to win 3 times/year for the next 7 years. That's going to be really difficult to do for a guy who's won 9 times overall.

We said the same thing last year with Bubba Watson, we've said the same thing with Keagan Bradley, Webb Simpson, etc.

Just enjoy Adam Scott's win!

[Awsi Dooger]

I doubt he'll win more than 10 additional PGA events and 1 more major. That might be pushing it. Great swing but weak short game and shaky putting means he won't comfortably separate. Really needed to take advantage of that rare gap at the British Open.

Whatever he does, it needs to be now. Not the putter. The prime. Once you get to 38 and up it's more hype than legit chance, particularly in the majors.

He's a 20/1 guy in the majors. That's the way I look at it. A 5 percenter.

[lumberman2462]

I think Scott wins another major....maybe two more. And he'll get a handful of Tour events, another few Australian wins and maybe a Euro event or two.

At the end of the day - I think he gets enough of a career to get in the Hall of Fame.

Happy for him with his Augusta win. Australia has deserved one for quite a few years.

[cdnglf]

[quote name='wholeinwon ' timestamp='1366055531' post='6851147']
I'll start by saying I love Adam Scott, he is one of my favourite golfers to watch and one of the most deserving of finally getting a major under his belt.

Mickelson has won 4 Majors, 41 times on the PGA Tour and 7 times on the Euro Tour.
Singh has won 3 Majors, 31 times on the PGA Tour and 13 times on the Euro Tour.
Els has won 4 Majors, 19 times on the PGA Tour and 27 times on the Euro Tour.

Adam Scott isn't a PGA Tour rookie, he won the Players almost 10 years ago!

He's won 7 times on the PGA Tour in 9 years since the Players Championship in 2004 and 1 Major Championship. Adding to that he's won 3 other European Tour events in that timespan. That means in 9 years since winning the Players Championship Adam Scott has won a total of 10 golf tournaments on the PGA and Euro Tour.

He's had 4 career top 5's in Majors.

How can you even begin to say he might start to approach Vijay/Phil/Ernie?!?!?!?

Vijay won 9 tournaments in 2004 alone!!!!!

To get to 30 wins on the PGA Tour Adam Scott would have to win 3 times/year for the next 7 years. That's going to be really difficult to do for a guy who's won 9 times overall.

We said the same thing last year with Bubba Watson, we've said the same thing with Keagan Bradley, Webb Simpson, etc.

Just enjoy Adam Scott's win!
[/quote]

Getting close to those guys was the most optimistic projection I presented, but I don't think its entirely out of the question. Scott has 9 PGA wins, 7 more Euro wins, a Masters, and a Players. Look at where Phil was at 32-turning-33: 21 PGA Tour wins, no Euro wins. No majors or players. Ernie won his third major at Scott's age, and had 10 PGA Tour wins and 8 more Euro wins. Both of those guys probably peaked around age 33-36. Ernie (born in 1969) won 6 times in 2003, 4 times in 2004 (including contending in all 4 majors), and another 4 times in 2005. Phil (born in 1970) won majors each year from 2004-2006, and 8 tournaments overall during those 3 seasons. Its not atypical for pro golfers to have their most prolific years during their early-to-mid 30s. If Scott follows the Phil/Ernie trajectory (admittedly, a big if), he'll end up closer to them than you might think.

Scott has been a consistent winner for quite a long time, typically 1 or 2 wins a year for more than decade. Different class of player from Bubba, who didn't win at all until he was almost 32. Keegan and Webb look to be more like Scott, but its still early.

[tembolo1284]

Who thinks Adam Scott can win another major this year?

How about complete the career slam?

[tembolo1284]

The only one I see him potentially struggling with is the Masters...but he just won that so....let's see it Adam!

[99Luftballoons]

I like Scott's chances to really take it to the next level now. The biggest knock on him prior to yesterday was whether he has the Cajones to win a big one. When he gave away the British Open last year it just cemented that feeling. Personally, I thought he was done after that. To come back and WIN (he made big shots and putts to win it yesterday- unlike some previous winners like Els and Simpson who just hung around while others failed) shows a lot of character from Scott.
I think he wins another 2-3 majors in his career going forward.

[wholeinwon]

The question I have for you is how is a guy who has won 2 tournaments in 1 year only once in his 10+ year PGA Tour career suddenly going to win 30 times in 10 years to get into the conversation of those other guys?

Phil had 17 top 10's in Majors before finally winning one, Scott had 8.
Phil had 12 more PGA Tour wins at the same age as Scott...you think 12 isn't a lot!??? That's 6 years winning 2 tournaments/year, something Scott's done once. At his current pace he'd get to 21 wins in 11 years at age 44, and he'd still be 20 wins behind Phil.

I just don't understand why you think a Masters will suddenly make him win at a pace he's never won at? If anything winning the Masters is going to make it harder to preform on a week to week basis because of all the extra commitments, press, appearances, etc.

He might preform better in majors, but he's not going to suddenly start winning 5X per season...

Think some better comparison would be:

Jim Furyk
Davis Love III
Fred Couples
Mark O'Meara
Curtis Strange
Tom Kite
Ben Crenshaw

All had amazing careers but are never considered on the Phil, Ernie, Vijay, Johnny Miller, Lee Trevino, Ray Floyd level.

[Brock Savage]

You guys are all working way too hard. Just go back and get the posts from a year ago about Bubba's glowing future, and stick Adam's name in them.

[cdnglf]

[quote name='wholeinwon ' timestamp='1366058422' post='6851499']
The question I have for you is how is a guy who has won 2 tournaments in 1 year only once in his 10+ year PGA Tour career suddenly going to win 30 times in 10 years to get into the conversation of those other guys?

Phil had 17 top 10's in Majors before finally winning one, Scott had 8.
Phil had 12 more PGA Tour wins at the same age as Scott...you think 12 isn't a lot!??? That's 6 years winning 2 tournaments/year, something Scott's done once. At his current pace he'd get to 21 wins in 11 years at age 44, and he'd still be 20 wins behind Phil.
[/quote]

Scott has 7 Euro wins to Phil's 0 (at the time). 16 total wins to Phil's 21, but he has a Masters and Players. Ernie had 19 total wins at that age (although a couple of his early Euro wins were probably more similar in quality to Scott's Asian tour wins, which I didn't count), but 3 majors instead of a major and a players. Scott is a little behind - but not way behind. He's way ahead of Vijay at the same age (but Vijay is, I think, a pretty significant outlier).


[quote name='wholeinwon ' timestamp='1366058422' post='6851499']
I just don't understand why you think a Masters will suddenly make him win at a pace he's never won at? If anything winning the Masters is going to make it harder to preform on a week to week basis because of all the extra commitments, press, appearances, etc.
[/quote]

Because he's entering the age range where historically a lot of guys suddenly start to win at a pace they've never won at.
(Also, its not what I consider to be the most likely outcome - it was clearly noted as the most optimistic of 3 different projections.)



[quote name='wholeinwon ' timestamp='1366058422' post='6851499']
He might preform better in majors, but he's not going to suddenly start winning 5X per season...

Think some better comparison would be:

Jim Furyk
Davis Love III
Fred Couples
Mark O'Meara
Curtis Strange
Tom Kite
Ben Crenshaw
[/quote]

If he more or less does what he's done for the past decade (1 or 2 wins a year, with one more players or major) thru age 37 or 38 and then tails off into his 40s, he'll end up somewhat better than these guys. Given the era, that should be enough to get him into the Hall of Fame.

[dmbgolfer]

[quote name='Brock Savage' timestamp='1366060352' post='6851725']
You guys are all working way too hard. Just go back and get the posts from a year ago about Bubba's glowing future, and stick Adam's name in them.
[/quote]

I dunno. Despite some ups and downs, Adam's seemed like a top player for a long time and he's been expected to win a major but just couldn't crack through. Even though Bubba was previously in a playoff for the PGA, when he won the Masters, I think the reaction was hey, good for him, didn't necessarily realize he'd be a major winner.

Adam's had great potential and great expectations for a while, much more so than Bubba.

[Ajit]

For those of you saying Scott's career will be over when anchoring is banned, Scott came 148th in strokes gained putting in 2012 and 143rd in 2011. I suggest the sooner he ditches the broomstick the better. Even yesterday his putting was probably the worst out of any of the leaders, other than Snedeker strangely enough.

The guy has been seriously consitent in majors in for the past two years, since 2011 he has finished T2, cut, T25, 7, T8, T15, 2, T11, W.

If he stays hungry I can see him winning several majors. He won't finish with too many PGA tour victories because he doesn't play that many events.

[wholeinwon]

Berhard Langer has 40 Euro wins, 3 PGA Tour wins and 2 Majors
Phil Mickelson has 41 PGA Tour wins, 1 Euro Tour win and 4 Majors

Pretty comparable by your standards but I have never heard Langer mentioned in the same breath as Phil.

Again just huge WHAT IF's for a guy who's been a multiple winner in one year of his career.

What if he turns into Mike Weir?? They have very very similar PGA careers at the same age, Mike won his Masters at 33, had won a WGC before, Tour Championship as well, had some heartbreak in previous Majors....

[Brock Savage]

[quote name='Ajit' timestamp='1366061281' post='6851821']
For those of you saying Scott's career will be over when anchoring is banned, Scott came 148th in strokes gained putting in 2012 and 143rd in 2011. I suggest the sooner he ditches the broomstick the better.
[/quote]

It seems very unlikely that he would be using the broomstick if he didn't putt even worse with a conventional putter.