What do you honestly think you would have shot at Muirfield

[Frostfield]

[quote name='somaplr' timestamp='1375282441' post='7575754']
[quote name='Frostfield' timestamp='1375275009' post='7574870'] KYMAR actually make my point for me. The field averaged 76. There are probably 1500 golfers in the world that have the game to qualify for a major. These 1500 would also average 76. Here is where it gets interesting. How many people in the world are 10 shots worse, per round, than these talented 1500 golfers? The answer is tens of thousands. How many people are 9 shots worse? TONS!!! Point is, the closer you get, the number is no doubt going to be smaller. BUT, I'd guess that in the world there are 15 to 20 Thousand players that average 3-3.5 strokes more than the chosen ones per round. That gigantic group would average 79.5. There isn't the tour, then a deep chasm to 12 handicaps. Every stroke worse from the tour increases the number exponentially. [/quote]

Yeah, that'd be all fine and dandy if you didn't just pull those numbers completely out of your rumpus
[/quote]

I said I'd guess. Those are valid guesstimates. Show stats saying otherwise.

[somaplr]

[quote name='Frostfield' timestamp='1375283260' post='7575874']
[quote name='somaplr' timestamp='1375282441' post='7575754']
[quote name='Frostfield' timestamp='1375275009' post='7574870'] KYMAR actually make my point for me. The field averaged 76. There are probably 1500 golfers in the world that have the game to qualify for a major. These 1500 would also average 76. Here is where it gets interesting. How many people in the world are 10 shots worse, per round, than these talented 1500 golfers? The answer is tens of thousands. How many people are 9 shots worse? TONS!!! Point is, the closer you get, the number is no doubt going to be smaller. BUT, I'd guess that in the world there are 15 to 20 Thousand players that average 3-3.5 strokes more than the chosen ones per round. That gigantic group would average 79.5. There isn't the tour, then a deep chasm to 12 handicaps. Every stroke worse from the tour increases the number exponentially. [/quote]

Yeah, that'd be all fine and dandy if you didn't just pull those numbers completely out of your rumpus
[/quote]

I said I'd guess. Those are valid guesstimates. Show stats saying otherwise.
[/quote]

That's not the way logic works. You can't come up with a theory and say Prove Me Wrong bro!!!

I contend Big Foot & the Lochness Monster are real. Prove me wrong.

[deadsolid...shank]

I think I'm currently at a three or four. Play in quite a bit of wind so that wouldn't bother me as much, but also play much shorter distances.

I would think 95 as realistic with the goal being to squeak in just under 90 which probably is not realistic.

But I do think a true low single digit is going to be able to break 100, I really don't see the 110+'s coming from someone who is legimatly a low single.

And as a caveat, I really am just guesing and have absolutely no idea what I'm talking about because I've never played a course like that.

[hogans71]

[quote name='Frostfield' timestamp='1375283260' post='7575874']
[quote name='somaplr' timestamp='1375282441' post='7575754']
[quote name='Frostfield' timestamp='1375275009' post='7574870'] KYMAR actually make my point for me. The field averaged 76. There are probably 1500 golfers in the world that have the game to qualify for a major. These 1500 would also average 76. Here is where it gets interesting. How many people in the world are 10 shots worse, per round, than these talented 1500 golfers? The answer is tens of thousands. How many people are 9 shots worse? TONS!!! Point is, the closer you get, the number is no doubt going to be smaller. BUT, I'd guess that in the world there are 15 to 20 Thousand players that average 3-3.5 strokes more than the chosen ones per round. That gigantic group would average 79.5. There isn't the tour, then a deep chasm to 12 handicaps. Every stroke worse from the tour increases the number exponentially. [/quote]

Yeah, that'd be all fine and dandy if you didn't just pull those numbers completely out of your rumpus
[/quote]

I said I'd guess. Those are valid guesstimates. Show stats saying otherwise.
[/quote]

What's a valid guesstimate?

[Dave230]

I read that in a magazine that four golfers played Wentworth a few hours after the final round of the BMW PGA and the non-touring pro shot in the high 80s, the 5 handicapper shot in the 90s and the middle handicappers shot over 100 shots. These tour courses are so difficult.

[Frostfield]

[quote name='hogans71' timestamp='1375284038' post='7575980']
[quote name='Frostfield' timestamp='1375283260' post='7575874']
[quote name='somaplr' timestamp='1375282441' post='7575754']
[quote name='Frostfield' timestamp='1375275009' post='7574870'] KYMAR actually make my point for me. The field averaged 76. There are probably 1500 golfers in the world that have the game to qualify for a major. These 1500 would also average 76. Here is where it gets interesting. How many people in the world are 10 shots worse, per round, than these talented 1500 golfers? The answer is tens of thousands. How many people are 9 shots worse? TONS!!! Point is, the closer you get, the number is no doubt going to be smaller. BUT, I'd guess that in the world there are 15 to 20 Thousand players that average 3-3.5 strokes more than the chosen ones per round. That gigantic group would average 79.5. There isn't the tour, then a deep chasm to 12 handicaps. Every stroke worse from the tour increases the number exponentially. [/quote]

Yeah, that'd be all fine and dandy if you didn't just pull those numbers completely out of your rumpus
[/quote]

I said I'd guess. Those are valid guesstimates. Show stats saying otherwise.
[/quote]

What's a valid guesstimate?
[/quote]

I can't give actual stats. That's obvious. That's why I gave the big ranges and what I felt were conservative.

[Frostfield]

The USGA doesn't give accurate stats for + handicaps. They just group them all in as 0.0 or better. Thats no good.

[Frostfield]

There are 60,000,000 golfers in the world. You don't think that .00033 % (20,000) of them can play to within 3 shots of the pros? Sheesh, I think was waaaay to conservative.

[Pat_Irish]

[quote name='Frostfield' timestamp='1375284469' post='7576044']
The USGA doesn't give accurate stats for + handicaps. They just group them all in as 0.0 or better. Thats no good.
[/quote]

To put it into to perspective,,,2 years ago I joined the FSGA ( i spend alot of time there ) I done the usual thing by putting in proper cards ( all were in competition ) and after 10 cards my handicap was 2.7 My real handicap in ireland was 6 and i was probably not playing to 10 , Maybe its easier to have a low handicap in the US

[Pat_Irish]

[quote name='Dave230' timestamp='1375284320' post='7576016']
I read that in a magazine that four golfers played Wentworth a few hours after the final round of the BMW PGA and the non-touring pro shot in the high 80s, the 5 handicapper shot in the 90s and the middle handicappers shot over 100 shots. These tour courses are so difficult.
[/quote]
Wentworth is totally different to Muirfield,,,for a start it plays its full length. Muirfeld was playing very short, I see you are from Ireland,,,did you play any links golf in the last month,,,the ball was running 200 yards

[Ty_Webb]

The worst best score for any player in the field was 80. Let's assume that every player in the field was at least a +6. That means that even if Satoshi Kodaira was a +6 who always played to his handicap at least every other round, then if we assume the slope was 155, the worst possible course rating for these IMO ridiculously conservative numbers would be around 88.5 (80-88.5) x 0.96 x 113/155= -5.9. Take a 5 handicap, hit that with the slope of 155 and you get a course handicap of 7. That means that a 5 handicap should be shooting 96 or less a quarter of the time.

Then again those estimates are preposterous.

For the record, it is my belief that if I went out and played a match against Tiger Woods, every day for 100 days, I would lose 100 times. He is that much better than me. I have no doubt about that. However, if i was getting a shot a hole, I reckon I would win more than a few. Luke Donald's quote is perfectly valid. They do play a completely different game from me and would eat me alive, but they're not THAT much better.

[KYMAR]

[quote name='Frostfield' timestamp='1375275009' post='7574870']
KYMAR actually make my point for me. The field averaged 76. There are probably 1500 golfers in the world that have the game to qualify for a major. These 1500 would also average 76. Here is where it gets interesting. How many people in the world are 10 shots worse, per round, than these talented 1500 golfers? The answer is tens of thousands. How many people are 9 shots worse? TONS!!! Point is, the closer you get, the number is no doubt going to be smaller. BUT, I'd guess that in the world there are 15 to 20 Thousand players that average 3-3.5 strokes more than the chosen ones per round. That gigantic group would average 79.5.

There isn't the tour, then a deep chasm to 12 handicaps. Every stroke worse from the tour increases the number exponentially.
[/quote]

Hyperbole+supposition+Assumption= reliable conclusion

Awesome.

[Derek666]

This thread is mad, thing is tho even if someone went and played Muirfield now it would not be under proper conditions so i guess we'll never know (Well some do obviously)

[hogans71]

[quote name='Frostfield' timestamp='1375284741' post='7576074']
There are 60,000,000 golfers in the world. You don't think that .00033 % (20,000) of them can play to within 3 shots of the pros? Sheesh, I think was waaaay to conservative.
[/quote]

You've managed to stray incredibly far from the op's original question...

What would YOU shoot during OPEN CHAMPIONSHIP CONDITIONS at this particular golf course. I think the definition of such conditions is pretty straightforward, don't you think?

[Pat_Irish]

[quote name='Derek666' timestamp='1375286843' post='7576370']
This thread is mad, thing is tho even if someone went and played Muirfield now it would not be under proper conditions so i guess we'll never know (Well some do obviously)
[/quote]
Derek
Played yesterday, everything back to normal,,,balls landing soft. greens holding, playing about 4 shots harder

[Dave230]

[quote name='Pat_Irish' timestamp='1375285862' post='7576260']
[quote name='Dave230' timestamp='1375284320' post='7576016']
I read that in a magazine that four golfers played Wentworth a few hours after the final round of the BMW PGA and the non-touring pro shot in the high 80s, the 5 handicapper shot in the 90s and the middle handicappers shot over 100 shots. These tour courses are so difficult.
[/quote]
Wentworth is totally different to Muirfield,,,for a start it plays its full length. Muirfeld was playing very short, I see you are from Ireland,,,did you play any links golf in the last month,,,the ball was running 200 yards
[/quote]

Yeah I heard about the great weather but I am in France at the minute so I didn't get a chance to play any golf in Ireland.

[Pat_Irish]

[quote name='Ty_Webb' timestamp='1375286098' post='7576288']
The worst best score for any player in the field was 80. Let's assume that every player in the field was at least a +6. That means that even if Satoshi Kodaira was a +6 who always played to his handicap at least every other round, then if we assume the slope was 155, the worst possible course rating for these IMO ridiculously conservative numbers would be around 88.5 (80-88.5) x 0.96 x 113/155= -5.9. Take a 5 handicap, hit that with the slope of 155 and you get a course handicap of 7. That means that a 5 handicap should be shooting 96 or less a quarter of the time.

Then again those estimates are preposterous.

For the record, it is my belief that if I went out and played a match against Tiger Woods, every day for 100 days, I would lose 100 times. He is that much better than me. I have no doubt about that. However, if i was getting a shot a hole, I reckon I would win more than a few. Luke Donald's quote is perfectly valid. They do play a completely different game from me and would eat me alive, but they're not THAT much better.
[/quote]

Zach Johnston shoots 66 first round, now for me to break a 100 that means i have 33 shots on him, I will play Zach everyday for money if he is giving me 33 shots, in fact I will play anyone for money if i am getting 33 shots,,,and they can say where

Rory shoots 80...second best in the world according to the rankings,,Faldo shoots 80, hasnt played golf in years. I suppose that proves they are equal ? They were on the day , anyone who cant break 100 on any course, in reality should give the game up

[Big Ben]

Jack has been quoted saying the average AM dramatically OVER ESTIMATES there ability to play the game of golf....I believe Jack. BB

[Derek666]

[quote name='Pat_Irish' timestamp='1375287636' post='7576492']
[quote name='Derek666' timestamp='1375286843' post='7576370']
This thread is mad, thing is tho even if someone went and played Muirfield now it would not be under proper conditions so i guess we'll never know (Well some do obviously)
[/quote]
Derek
Played yesterday, everything back to normal,,,balls landing soft. greens holding, playing about 4 shots harder
[/quote]

Yeah i played today and the greens are a bit more manageable but fairways still pretty quick.

[Ty_Webb]

[quote name='Big Ben' timestamp='1375288188' post='7576554']
Jack has been quoted saying the average AM dramatically OVER ESTIMATES there ability to play the game of golf....I believe Jack. BB
[/quote]

What is the "average AM"?

[Pat_Irish]

[quote name='Derek666' timestamp='1375288327' post='7576576']
[quote name='Pat_Irish' timestamp='1375287636' post='7576492']
[quote name='Derek666' timestamp='1375286843' post='7576370']
This thread is mad, thing is tho even if someone went and played Muirfield now it would not be under proper conditions so i guess we'll never know (Well some do obviously)
[/quote]
Derek
Played yesterday, everything back to normal,,,balls landing soft. greens holding, playing about 4 shots harder
[/quote]

Yeah i played today and the greens are a bit more manageable but fairways still pretty quick.
[/quote]
Fairways pretty quick,,,rough heavy and wet,,,hacking out if your in there,,,not like 2 weeks ago when it was easy to move

[Pat_Irish]

[quote name='Dave230' timestamp='1375287770' post='7576506']
[quote name='Pat_Irish' timestamp='1375285862' post='7576260']
[quote name='Dave230' timestamp='1375284320' post='7576016']
I read that in a magazine that four golfers played Wentworth a few hours after the final round of the BMW PGA and the non-touring pro shot in the high 80s, the 5 handicapper shot in the 90s and the middle handicappers shot over 100 shots. These tour courses are so difficult.
[/quote]
Wentworth is totally different to Muirfield,,,for a start it plays its full length. Muirfeld was playing very short, I see you are from Ireland,,,did you play any links golf in the last month,,,the ball was running 200 yards
[/quote]

Yeah I heard about the great weather but I am in France at the minute so I didn't get a chance to play any golf in Ireland.
[/quote]
Havent seen the fairways as fast in 20 years,,,not joking anything under 400 yards that you had hit straight, it was putter for your second shot

[Frostfield]

[quote name='hogans71' timestamp='1375287480' post='7576460']
[quote name='Frostfield' timestamp='1375284741' post='7576074']
There are 60,000,000 golfers in the world. You don't think that .00033 % (20,000) of them can play to within 3 shots of the pros? Sheesh, I think was waaaay to conservative.
[/quote]

You've managed to stray incredibly far from the op's original question...

What would YOU shoot during OPEN CHAMPIONSHIP CONDITIONS at this particular golf course. I think the definition of such conditions is pretty straightforward, don't you think?
[/quote]

Read the thread. I have said what I thought I'd shoot. Just adding my thought about the thousands capable of breaking 80.

[hogans71]

[quote name='Frostfield' timestamp='1375289458' post='7576736']
[quote name='hogans71' timestamp='1375287480' post='7576460']
[quote name='Frostfield' timestamp='1375284741' post='7576074']
There are 60,000,000 golfers in the world. You don't think that .00033 % (20,000) of them can play to within 3 shots of the pros? Sheesh, I think was waaaay to conservative.
[/quote]

You've managed to stray incredibly far from the op's original question...

What would YOU shoot during OPEN CHAMPIONSHIP CONDITIONS at this particular golf course. I think the definition of such conditions is pretty straightforward, don't you think?
[/quote]

Read the thread. I have said what I thought I'd shoot. Just adding my thought about the thousands capable of breaking 80.
[/quote]

I've read plenty. And, for good measure, viewed a completely meaningless swing video as well...

[Pat_Irish]

Whats the difference between a PGA pro and a single digit AM ? They hit the ball much further ( not really an issue at Muirfield) and from 150 yards in ( some say 100) and the reason is they usually get it close with great control spin it and even when the miss they are so good around the green and from bunkers, and the major problem the majority had at Muirfield..all of those advantages, .....could not get it close. could not spin it , could not get it close out of bunkers, and seldom got up and down from around the green , not to mention some of the putting and reading of greens was from another era . Actually they were playing a game that most Guys play ever time they go out, So Sneds 4 putts for 15 feet, what makes you think you would do worse ? maybe you would have canned it and gained 3 shots right there ,,Think about it guys

[PaddyK]

[quote name='Dave230' timestamp='1375284320' post='7576016']
I read that in a magazine that four golfers played Wentworth a few hours after the final round of the BMW PGA and the non-touring pro shot in the high 80s, the 5 handicapper shot in the 90s and the middle handicappers shot over 100 shots. These tour courses are so difficult.
[/quote]

You read wrong, only the pro shot double figures, the rest were all well over a hundred.

[Pat_Irish]

Harrington won back to back Irish PGA,s 2007/2008 at the European Club ( par 71) He also won back to back Opens one week later, Carnoustie and Birkdale 2007 his score at the European 287 and one week later at Carnoustie 277 following year score at the European 285,,,,score at Birkdale 283 so this must prove that if Open courses are unplayable for AM,s then the European is impossible Tiger holds the course record 67, I am a member